{"id":692,"date":"2016-04-19T11:43:46","date_gmt":"2016-04-19T08:43:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/?p=692"},"modified":"2016-04-19T11:43:46","modified_gmt":"2016-04-19T08:43:46","slug":"en-yuksek-kar-artisi-hangi-bankadan-gelir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/en-yuksek-kar-artisi-hangi-bankadan-gelir\/","title":{"rendered":"En y\u00fcksek kar art\u0131\u015f\u0131 hangi bankadan gelir?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Finansg\u00fcndem – \u015eekerbank analistleri Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc 1.\u00c7eyrek bilan\u00e7o beklentilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131<\/h2>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

\u015eekerbank Taraf\u0131ndan Haz\u0131rlanan Analiz B\u00fclteni:<\/p>\n

“En y\u00fcksek kar art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile Akbank \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131karken, birinci \u00e7eyrekte sonu\u00e7lar nispeten zay\u0131f<\/strong><\/p>\n

Y\u0131l\u0131n birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde takip etti\u011fimiz bankalar\u0131n toplam net kar\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re ise y\u00fczde 11 art\u0131\u015f beklemekteyiz. Beklentilerimiz, temett\u00fc etkisini ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131rsak y\u00fczde 12 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etmektedir.<\/p>\n

Birinci \u00e7eyrekte Akbank\u2019\u0131n \u00e7eyreksel y\u00fczde 9 (y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 36) kar art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla rakiplerinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekteyiz.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ekirdek gelirlerde, kredi getirisi\/mevduat maliyeti makas\u0131n\u0131n ortalama 10-15 baz puan daralmas\u0131, T\u00dcFE\u2019ye endeksli menkullerin getirilerinin \u00e7eyreksel olarak nispeten zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve mevsimsellik
\netkisinde azalan komisyon gelirlerinin etkisinde y\u00fczde 5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyoruz. Net faiz marj\u0131nda \u00e7eyreksel ortalama 20 baz puan daralma olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekteyiz. Swap kaynakl\u0131 artan sermaye piyasas\u0131\u00a0zararlar\u0131, ivmesi azalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen devam eden komisyon geri \u00f6demeleri ve sorunlu kredilerdeki art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fckselen kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k giderleri banka karlar\u0131n\u0131 bu \u00e7eyrek olumsuz etkileyebilecek unsurlard\u0131r. Baz\u0131 bankalar\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrekte temett\u00fc toplayacak olmas\u0131
\nise sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olumlu etkilemektedir.<\/p>\n

Bu raporla tavsiyelerimizi korurken hedef fiyatlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00fcncelliyoruz. Y\u00fczde 10 risksiz faiz oran\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 5,5 \u00fclke risk primiyle Gordon B\u00fcy\u00fcme Modeli\u2019ne g\u00f6re hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 12 ayl\u0131k hedef fiyatlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 modellerimizde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z de\u011fi\u015fikliklerle ortalama y\u00fczde 15 y\u00fckseltiyoruz. 2016 kar beklentilerimizi ortalama y\u00fczde 2 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerken 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in takip etti\u011fimiz bankalarda hisse ba\u015f\u0131na karl\u0131l\u0131kta ortalama y\u00fczde 16 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, y\u00fczde 12 sermaye getirisi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Akbank\u2019\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrekte kar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7eyreksel y\u00fczde 9 art\u0131rarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Aktif kalitesinin korunmas\u0131 sayesinde zay\u0131flayan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k giderleri, sermaye piyasas\u0131 zararlar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ve di\u011fer
\nbankac\u0131l\u0131k gelirleri karl\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaktad\u0131r. De\u011ferleme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise, 2016 tahmini 9,3 F\/K oran\u0131, 1,1 F\/DD ve y\u00fczde 13 sermaye getirisi (rakipler ortalama y\u00fczde 11,5) ile rakiplerine g\u00f6re primli i\u015flem g\u00f6ren Akbank\u2019\u0131n bu primi hakketti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekteyiz.<\/p>\n

Akbank\u2019\u0131n ard\u0131ndan temett\u00fc gelirlerinin etkisinde TSKB\u2019nin karl\u0131l\u0131kta iyi bir performans sergileyece\u011fini beklemekteyiz. Yap\u0131 Kredi\u2019nin ise kar\u0131n\u0131 koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 beklemekteyiz. Para swaplar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 sermaye
\npiyasas\u0131 zararlar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ve faaliyet giderlerinin normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n olumlu etkisini finansallarda g\u00f6rece\u011fimizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekteyiz.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131\u2019nda sermaye piyasas\u0131 zararlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve sorunlu kredilerin artmas\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fckselen kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k giderleri karl\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde etkili olacakt\u0131r. Halkbank\u2019ta \u00e7ekirdek gelirler korunurken
\nkredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi kaynakl\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gideri art\u0131\u015f\u0131, Garanti\u2019de kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k giderlerinin kurdaki toparlanma ile azalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen devam eden sermaye piyasas\u0131 zararlar\u0131 etkili olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Vak\u0131fbank\u2019ta ise mevduat maliyetlerinin y\u00fcksek seyretmesi, zay\u0131flayan komisyon gelirleri ve temett\u00fclerin ikinci \u00e7eyrekte toplanacak olmas\u0131 karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz etkileyecektir.<\/p>\n

Albaraka\u2019da kar payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 konut proje gelirlerinin mevsimsellik etkisinde azalacak olmas\u0131 ve faaliyet giderlerinin y\u00fcksek seyretmesi karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 etkileyebilecek unsurlard\u0131r.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Finansg\u00fcndem – \u015eekerbank analistleri Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc 1.\u00c7eyrek bilan\u00e7o beklentilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"views":1051,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/692"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=692"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/692\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":693,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/692\/revisions\/693"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=692"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=692"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=692"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}