Bloomberght – Fitch: Fed’in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n marjlar\u0131n\u0131 etkiler<\/p>\n
Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Liddell, T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n Fed’in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan etkilenece\u011fini ifade etti<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch Ratings Finansal Kurulu\u015flar Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Lindsey Liddell, temel senaryoya g\u00f6re T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n sermaye piyasalar\u0131na eri\u015fimin olumlu \u015fekilde devam etmesinin beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Liddell, “ABD’deki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi dolar cinsinden finansmana y\u00fcksek oranda ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olunmas\u0131 nedeniyle T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n marjlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilir. Toplamda mevduatlar dahil olmak \u00fczere, d\u00f6viz cinsinden y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6zkaynak d\u0131\u015f\u0131 finansman\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bankalar\u0131n net d\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda daha uzun vadeli gelirken, bekleyen d\u00f6viz borcunu b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminin risklere kar\u015f\u0131 koyabilecek y\u00f6nleri oldu\u011funu belirten Liddell, “Fitch’in baz senaryosu T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n sermaye piyasalar\u0131na iyi olan eri\u015fimlerini devam ettirecekleri ve bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7evirebilecekleri y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bankalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz likiditeleri, piyasa eri\u015fiminde k\u0131sa vadeli kesintilerle ba\u015f edebilmelerini i\u00e7in iyi konumlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Fakat piyasa eri\u015fiminde uzun ve keskin bir kesinti yeniden finansman risklerinde art\u0131\u015fa neden olabilir” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Son d\u00f6nemde d\u00f6viz kurundaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da de\u011ferlendiren Liddell, “T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda ticari alanda y\u00fcksek seviyede uzun s\u00fcreli \u015fekilde d\u00f6viz cinsinden bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 (bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn kredilerinin y\u00fczde 30’u) potansiyel kredi riski kayna\u011f\u0131. Bu krediler temel olarak uzun vadeli riske maruz, hedge edilmemi\u015f yada zay\u0131f \u015fekilde hedge edilmi\u015f bor\u00e7lulara ait. Bu kredilerin bankalar\u0131n toplam kredileri i\u00e7erisindeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck krediler olmas\u0131, yo\u011funla\u015fma riski (concentration risk) getiriyor. Buna ra\u011fmen, bu kredilerin genellikle T\u00fcrkiye’nin i\u015f ve gelir \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fine sahip en \u00f6nemli \u015firketlerine verilmi\u015f olmas\u0131 bu riskler i\u00e7in yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 unsur” de\u011ferlendirmelerinde bulundu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrk \u015firketlerinin sermaye piyasalar\u0131na eri\u015fiminde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde baz\u0131 zorluklar\u0131n ya\u015fanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden Liddell, “EMEA geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde ABD’nin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ve dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden kaynakl\u0131 risklere \u00e7o\u011funlukla hedge edilmemi\u015f d\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 en fazla maruz kalanlar T\u00fcrk \u015firketleri. T\u00fcrk \u015firketlerinin gelirleri T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 cinsindenken, bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 85’inden fazlas\u0131 dolar cinsinden. Geni\u015f miktarda hedge edilmemi\u015f d\u00f6viz riskine maruz kal\u0131nmas\u0131 para birimi zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a mali rasyolarda bozulmaya yol a\u00e7abilir” dedi.<\/p>\n
– “T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n sermaye ve likidite tamponu var”<\/strong><\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye’deki son d\u00f6nemdeki geli\u015fmeleri uzun vadede ekonomi politikalar\u0131nda baz\u0131 belirsizliklere neden olabilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcren Liddell, “T\u00fcrkiye’de politik belirsizli\u011fin devam etmesi ekonomik politika \u00fczerindeki gerilimi art\u0131rabilir ve bankalar i\u00e7in ek riskler yaratabilir. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flama, liradaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131, y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye’ye y\u00f6nelik daha zay\u0131f yat\u0131r\u0131m alg\u0131s\u0131 bankalar\u0131n kredi profillerinde y\u00fck olu\u015fturabilir. Buna ra\u011fmen Fitch’in temel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bankalar\u0131n faaliyet ortam\u0131ndaki bozulman\u0131n \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seviyede olaca\u011f\u0131 ve bankalar\u0131n \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131 absorbe edebilecek yeterli sermaye ve likidite tamponlar\u0131na sahip oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n – “Il\u0131ml\u0131 kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi pozitif”<\/strong><\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye’nin son d\u00f6nemde bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin h\u0131z kesmesinin, pozitif bir geli\u015fme oldu\u011funu vurgulayan Liddell, “Fitch T\u00fcrkiye’deki bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011findeki \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in pozitif g\u00f6rmektedir. Kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesindeki yava\u015flama bankalar\u0131n bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 fazlaca geni\u015fletmelerini engellerken, varl\u0131k kalitesi problemlerini kontrol alt\u0131nda almaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacak, daha geni\u015f makroekonomik dengesizliklerden kaynakl\u0131 riskleri azaltacakt\u0131r. Kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesindeki yava\u015flama T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in pozitif bir unsur. Bu sistemin risklerin kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131na yard\u0131m edecektir” dedi.<\/p>\n – “Sekt\u00f6rde rekabet ortam\u0131 devam edecek”<\/strong><\/p>\n HSBC’nin T\u00fcrkiye’deki faaliyetlerini sat\u0131\u015f karar\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011ferlendiren Liddell, “Orta b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte baz\u0131 bankalar\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Fakat biz bunun temelde sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve rekabet ortam\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn varl\u0131klar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 75’ine sahip 7 banka taraf\u0131ndan domine edilmeye devam edilmesi olas\u0131” \u015feklinde konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n Liddell, son d\u00f6nemde Yunanistan’daki krizle birlikte s\u0131kl\u0131kla g\u00fcndeme gelen National Bank of Greece’e ili\u015fkin sorulara ise, “NBG’nin Finansbank’\u0131n kredi profili \u00fczerinde g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilebilir bir etkisi var. \u0130leride olabilecek bula\u015fma riski, bankan\u0131n ayr\u0131 bir isim alt\u0131nda, NBG ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve Finansbank’\u0131n finansman ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle hafifletiliyor. Finansbank mevduat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve \u015fubelerinde ya da piyasa eri\u015fiminde hi\u00e7 kay\u0131p ya\u015famad\u0131” dedi.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bloomberght – Fitch: Fed’in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n marjlar\u0131n\u0131 etkiler Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Liddell, T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n Fed’in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan etkilenece\u011fini ifade etti<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"views":4988,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=667"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":668,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667\/revisions\/668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}