Finansg\u00fcndem – Ergun \u00d6zen’den sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in bomba a\u00e7\u0131klamalar<\/p>\n
Garanti Bankas\u0131 Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Ergun \u00d6zen, bankalar\u0131n kendi i\u015f modellerini yeniden ele almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini savundu<\/p>\n
Garanti Bankas\u0131 Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Ergun \u00d6zen, “T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131 reg\u00fclasyonlar ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sermaye yap\u0131s\u0131 sayesinde d\u00fcnyada en g\u00fcvenilir bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6rleri aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor” dedi.<\/p>\n
Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ya\u015fanan son geli\u015fmeleri ve y\u0131l sonuna ili\u015fkin beklentilerini de\u011ferlendiren \u00d6zen, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn 2015’in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde kredilerde y\u00fczde 6,6’l\u0131k bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetti\u011fini ve kurdan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 3,8 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
TL krediler y\u00fczde 5 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken yabanc\u0131 para (YP) kredilerin dolar baz\u0131nda hemen hemen ayn\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktaran \u00d6zen, mevduat taraf\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ise kredilerin alt\u0131nda kalarak y\u00fczde 6 civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini, burada TL mevduat y\u00fczde 1 artarken, YP mevduat\u0131n dolar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydetti.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zen, ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fin faiz marjlar\u0131n\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem oldu\u011funu ifade ederek, mevduat maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yan\u0131nda menkul k\u0131ymet portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fcn (\u00f6zellikle enflasyona endeksli ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n) getirisindeki yava\u015flama ve g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalan kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi sonucunda, 2014 y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 3,56 olan net faiz marj\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 3,36’ya geriledi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Kriz sonras\u0131nda, toplam sermaye yeterlili\u011finden ziyade \u00e7ekirdek sermaye yeterlili\u011finin (CET1) \u00f6nem kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydeden \u00d6zen, \u015f\u00f6yle dedi:<\/p>\n
“Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn CET1 rasyosu, mart sonunda y\u00fczde 13,3 ile g\u00fcven veren bir d\u00fczeyde bulunuyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin nispeten daha canl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda ekonomik aktivitenin tekrar h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131yla birlikte y\u0131ll\u0131k kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 20’ye yak\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini bekliyorum. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek sonunda, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn aktif karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 1,28’e \u00f6zkaynak karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 11,6’ya gerilemi\u015f oldu. Sekt\u00f6r genelindeki bu resim, orta-k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bankalarda biraz daha bozuluyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00f6zkaynak karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fal sonucu olarak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn i\u00e7sel sermaye \u00fcretim kapasitesi de daral\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yeterli i\u00e7sel sermaye \u00fcretilememesi, mevcut sermaye y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri ba\u011flam\u0131nda sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn hanehalk\u0131n\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc fonlama kapasitesinin de daralmakta oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz, bir \u015firketin \u00f6zkaynak karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ana sorumlusu yine \u015firketin kendisidir, y\u00f6netimidir. Tabii, burada baz\u0131 d\u0131\u015fsal fakt\u00f6rlerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz etkiyi yok saym\u0131yorum, hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz ciddi bir d\u0131\u015fsal ge\u00e7i\u015fkenlik s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. Ancak, de\u011fi\u015fen d\u0131\u015fsal ko\u015fullara uyum sa\u011flamak da \u015firketin kendi sorumlulu\u011fundad\u0131r.”<\/p>\n
K\u00c2RLILIKTA YAPISAL B\u0130R BOZULMA YA\u015eIYORUZ<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00d6zen, sekt\u00f6r olarak karl\u0131l\u0131kta yap\u0131sal bir bozulma ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirerek, kredi-mevduat oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 119’lara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve kredi penetrasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n Bu durumun faiz marjlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli bir bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan \u00d6zen, t\u00fcketici kredilerine y\u00f6nelik al\u0131nan makro ihtiyati \u00f6nlemlerin, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn hem b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyelini etkiledi\u011fini hem de faiz ve komisyon kapasitesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n Konjonkt\u00fcrel olarak y\u00fcksek kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k maliyetlerine maruz kald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, kur ve faiz geli\u015fmelerinin do\u011frudan bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi\u011fini ifade eden Ergun \u00d6zen, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n “\u00d6zetle, d\u0131\u015fsal ko\u015fullar sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00fcst\u00fcne geliyor. Ayr\u0131ca, d\u00fc\u015fen gelir ortam\u0131na ayak uyduramad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in operasyonel maliyetlerimiz hala y\u00fcksek seyrediyor. Elimizdeki malzeme bu. Bu malzemeyi kullanarak iyi bir resim yapmak ya da yapmamak. \u0130\u015fte bu da \u015firketin kendi \u00fczerine d\u00fc\u015fen g\u00f6rev. Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kendi \u00fczerine d\u00fc\u015fen sorumluluklar\u0131 yerine getirmeden otoritelerden baz\u0131 d\u00fczenlemeleri gev\u015fetmesini beklemesi bana \u00e7ok da adil gelmiyor.<\/p>\n Sadece T\u00fcrkiye’de de\u011fil, b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyada kriz sonras\u0131 yeni bir paradigma olu\u015fuyor. Finansal istikrar eksenli makro ihtiyati d\u00fczenlemelerin bir gereklilik olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, sermayenin nicel ve nitel olarak art\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, ‘bail-in’ gibi ‘TLAC’ gibi yeni y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin getirildi\u011fi bir d\u00fcnya var art\u0131k. Bankalar\u0131n batmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalt\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken, sistemik risklerin ye\u015fermesine izin verilmeyen bir ortam. T\u00fcrkiye’deki otoritelerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 da bu…”<\/p>\n YIL GENEL\u0130NDE SORUN BEKLEM\u0130YORUM<\/strong><\/p>\n Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ve tek tek bankalar\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fcp kendi i\u015f modellerini sil ba\u015ftan ele almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine dikkati \u00e7eken \u00d6zen, yeni paradigmada eski al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klara yer olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve eski davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131, eski i\u015f yap\u0131\u015f modellerini devam ettirmek isteyenlerin ya\u015fama \u015fans\u0131n\u0131n da bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n \u00d6zen, “Sekt\u00f6r, organizasyon yap\u0131lar\u0131ndan i\u015f modellerine, fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan operasyonel maliyetlerine kadar her konuda radikal bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fcndemine almadan ne \u00f6zkaynak karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir ve tatmin edici bir d\u00fczeye \u00e7ekebilir ne de asli i\u015flevini, yani reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc fonlamay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilecek bir sermaye \u00fcretimini kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131labilir. Sekt\u00f6r, derman\u0131 makro ihtiyati \u00f6nlemlerin gev\u015fetilmesinde arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, korkar\u0131m bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc ka\u00e7\u0131rma riski ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn genel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ve d\u0131\u015fsal \u015foklara dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ve kredit\u00f6rlerin g\u00fcvenini sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktaran \u00d6zen, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn, d\u0131\u015f finansmana eri\u015fimde ilk \u00e7eyrekte de bir sorun ya\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu y\u0131l genelinde de ya\u015famas\u0131n\u0131 beklemedi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyrekte uzun vadeli d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 \u00e7evirme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 228 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi bilgisini veren \u00d6zen, bu oran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f finansman\u0131n artarak devam etti\u011fini ve de vadenin uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge oldu\u011funu aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde TL’de ya\u015fanan de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar olumsuz etkiledi\u011fini kaydeden \u00d6zen, bunun da yurti\u00e7i piyasalar\u0131n emsallerine g\u00f6re daha olumsuz performans sergilemesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. Ancak, son g\u00fcnlerde T\u00fcrkiye’nin risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fini ifade eden Ergun \u00d6zen, bunu kur ve piyasa faizlerindeki gerilemeden de g\u00f6zlemleyebildiklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u0131k\u0131 reg\u00fclasyonlar ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sermaye yap\u0131s\u0131 sayesinde d\u00fcnyada en g\u00fcvenilir bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6rleri aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan \u00d6zen, “T\u00fcrk banka hisseleri, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n portf\u00f6y\u00fcnde olmazsa olmaz bir varl\u0131k olarak yerini kesinlikle koruyor. Rating \u015firketleri bile bu g\u00fcc\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc teslim etmeden geri duram\u0131yor” dedi.<\/p>\n Moody’s’in mart ay\u0131ndaki de\u011ferlendirmesinde, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yine negatif olarak belirlemesine kar\u015f\u0131n sermaye g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc teslim etmek zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydeden \u00d6zen, Moody’s’in, d\u0131\u015fsal \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131, sermaye g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn iyi d\u00fczeyde koruma sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti\u011fini hat\u0131rlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ikilem i\u00e7erisinde olduklar\u0131n\u0131 dile getiren \u00d6zen, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/strong><\/p>\n “Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131, finansal kriz s\u00fcrecinde ciddi bir g\u00fcven kayb\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 olas\u0131 riskler konusunda zaman\u0131nda uyarmam\u0131\u015f olmalar\u0131 nedeniyle yo\u011fun olarak ele\u015ftirildiler, haklar\u0131nda say\u0131s\u0131z dava a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131, y\u00fckl\u00fc tazminatlar \u00f6demek zorunda kald\u0131lar. Bu nedenle, kriz sonras\u0131nda rating firmalar\u0131, ayn\u0131 hataya d\u00fc\u015fmemek ad\u0131na bu kez di\u011fer uca do\u011fru savruluyorlar. Analizlerinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131 davranmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar. Her k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sorunu bile bir kriz tetikleyicisi olarak g\u00f6sterir duruma geldiler. Bir rating \u015firketinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerindeki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131, birinci tip hata (Type I Error) ve ikinci tip hata (Type II Error) toplam\u0131n\u0131 minimize etmesiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr. Rating \u015firketleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan birinci tip hata, krizi \u00f6ng\u00f6rememe riskidir, yani model sinyal vermemesine ra\u011fmen krizin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumu. II. Tip Hata ise kriz olmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen modelin yanl\u0131\u015f kriz alarm\u0131 vermesidir.”<\/p>\n Finansal kriz sonras\u0131 kredi derecelendirme \u015firketlerinin varolu\u015fsal bir ikilem ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan \u00d6zen, kriz \u00f6ncesinde birinci tip hataya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fckleri i\u00e7in \u00e7ok sert ele\u015ftirilere muhatap olan kurulu\u015flar\u0131n, kriz sonras\u0131nda ikinci tip hata olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n rekor derecede artmas\u0131 pahas\u0131na birinci tip hataya d\u00fc\u015fmemek i\u00e7in a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcmser bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sergileyebildiklerini ve bu durumunda rating modellerinin g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi konusunda ciddi soru i\u015faretleri yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n Garanti Bankas\u0131 Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Ergun \u00d6zen, “T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ili\u015fkin rating analizlerine bu \u00e7ekinceyi d\u00fc\u015fmeden edemedim” dedi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Finansg\u00fcndem – Ergun \u00d6zen’den sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in bomba a\u00e7\u0131klamalar Garanti Bankas\u0131 Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Ergun \u00d6zen, bankalar\u0131n kendi i\u015f modellerini yeniden ele almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini savundu Garanti Bankas\u0131 Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Ergun \u00d6zen, “T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131 reg\u00fclasyonlar ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sermaye yap\u0131s\u0131 sayesinde d\u00fcnyada en g\u00fcvenilir bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6rleri aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor” dedi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"views":1216,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/589"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=589"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/589\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":591,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/589\/revisions\/591"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}