{"id":474,"date":"2015-02-24T09:40:33","date_gmt":"2015-02-24T07:40:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/?p=474"},"modified":"2015-02-24T09:40:33","modified_gmt":"2015-02-24T07:40:33","slug":"merkez-bankasi-faiz-indiremez-borc-alan-emir-alir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/merkez-bankasi-faiz-indiremez-borc-alan-emir-alir\/","title":{"rendered":"Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz indiremez, \u201cBor\u00e7 alan emir al\u0131r\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hakan \u00d6ZYILDIZ – Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz indiremez, \u201cBor\u00e7 alan emir al\u0131r\u201d<\/p>\n

Piyasalar yar\u0131n\u0131 heyecanla bekliyor. TCMB\u2019nin siyasi bask\u0131lara direnip faiz indirmeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler kadar tersini \u00f6ng\u00f6renler de var.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n t\u0131rnak i\u00e7indeki b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc bana ait de\u011fil. Bir televizyon program\u0131nda s\u00f6ylendi. S\u00f6yleyen kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlayamad\u0131. Ama \u00e7ok do\u011fru ve ac\u0131 bir s\u00f6z.<\/p>\n

Ne demek istedi\u011fimi a\u00e7\u0131klamadan \u00f6nce gelin UYP, Uluslararas\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131m Pozisyonu nedir, k\u0131saca hat\u0131rlayal\u0131m.<\/strong> TC Merkez Bankas\u0131, \u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz hareketlerini izler. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131yla yap\u0131lan her t\u00fcrl\u00fc mal ve hizmet al\u0131m sat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 bankalardan ve g\u00fcmr\u00fcklerden takip eder. Yan\u0131 s\u0131ra hisse senedi, tahvil gibi d\u00f6vizli portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131, do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131, al\u0131nan\u00a0 ve verilen t\u00fcm d\u00f6vizli kredileri \u00f6demler dengesi tablolar\u0131nda izler ve yay\u0131mlar. Bu veriler bir ayl\u0131k veya bir y\u0131ll\u0131k olarak yap\u0131lan i\u015flemleri g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n

UYP ise bu ak\u0131m verilerin toplam\u0131n\u0131n yani stokun g\u00f6stergesidir. <\/strong>Bir yanda \u00fclkedeki t\u00fcm kesimlerin d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131 di\u011fer yanda da d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri yer al\u0131r. Varl\u0131klar ile y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler aras\u0131ndaki fark net UYP pozisyonudur. Varl\u0131klar fazla ise \u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz alaca\u011f\u0131, y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler fazla ise d\u00f6viz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 yani borcu var demektir.<\/strong><\/p>\n

2014 y\u0131l\u0131 sonu itibariyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u00f6viz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 431,2 milyar dolar\u0131 ge\u00e7ti.<\/strong> Milli gelirinin 53\u2019\u00fcnden fazlas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen bu rakam\u0131n \u00f6nemi ne yaz\u0131k ki tam olarak anla\u015f\u0131lam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Belki anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na bir katk\u0131s\u0131 olur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceciyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafi\u011fi haz\u0131rlad\u0131m. Grafikte, 1996-2014 ars\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemde, yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n hisse senedi, tahvil gibi portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de a\u00e7t\u0131klar\u0131 mevduat hesaplar\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131n\u0131n, yani dar tan\u0131ml\u0131 s\u0131cak paran\u0131n, net UYP a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na oran\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Di\u011fer bir deyimle, grafik \u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar\u0131 s\u0131cak paradan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.Asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k bir mesaj veriyor. Ne zaman s\u0131cak para artarsa k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k o kadar b\u00fcy\u00fcyor<\/strong>. 1999 s\u0131cak paran\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa oran\u0131 tarihi rekor k\u0131rm\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 60\u2019a ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f. Ard\u0131ndan 2001 Krizi patlak vermi\u015f, s\u0131cak para ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015f. 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda oran y\u00fczde 45\u2019lere \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f 2009 Krizi ekonomiyi vurmu\u015f, s\u0131cak para yine azalm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n

\u015eimdi, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda gelinen nokta 1999 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonraki en y\u00fcksek oran, y\u00fczde 53<\/strong>. Yani \u00fclke d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerinin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131 hisse senedi, tahvil ve mevduat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in gelen d\u00f6vizlerden kaynaklan\u0131yor. \u0130stedikleri anda hemen sat\u0131p gidecekler. Gitmemeleri bir tek \u015feye ba\u011fl\u0131: y\u00fcksek getiriye. Di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde elde edebileceklerinden daha y\u00fcksek getiri sa\u011flanamazsa burada \u00e7ok fazla durmazlar<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Tahvilde, mevduatta y\u00fcksek getiri ne demek? Y\u00fcksek faiz mi? O zaman Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra finansal istikrar da \u00f6nemli demesinin, kurlar\u0131 dikkate almas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni burada yat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, \u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz dengesini bu hale getiren de Merkez Bankas\u0131 de\u011fil. Kambiyo rejiminden Hazine, yani h\u00fck\u00fcmet sorumlu<\/strong>. Nas\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131na oras\u0131 karar veriyor. O zaman s\u0131cak paraya bu kadar yol verdikten sonra \u015fimdi faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmekten olabildi\u011fince uzak duran Banka\u2019y\u0131 ele\u015ftirmenin bir anlam\u0131 yok.<\/p>\n

Bu ba\u011flamda, e\u011fer ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z karar alabilecekse TCMB yar\u0131n faiz indirmeyecektir.<\/p>\n

Ne yar\u0131n ne de daha sonra. Ta ki s\u0131cak paran\u0131n etkisi azalana kadar bu b\u00f6yle devam eder. Bir emir alma i\u015fi varsa, ki fiilen m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil<\/strong>, o d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lardan gelecektir. Gelirimiz d\u00fc\u015ferse biz de ka\u00e7ar\u0131z derlerse \u00e7ar\u015f\u0131 kar\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131ndan, kimse se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi bu riski almak istemez.\"\"<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hakan \u00d6ZYILDIZ – Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz indiremez, \u201cBor\u00e7 alan emir al\u0131r\u201d Piyasalar yar\u0131n\u0131 heyecanla bekliyor. TCMB\u2019nin siyasi bask\u0131lara direnip faiz indirmeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler kadar tersini \u00f6ng\u00f6renler de var.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"views":2563,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/474"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=474"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/474\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":475,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/474\/revisions\/475"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=474"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=474"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=474"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}