<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonunun (IMF)\u00a0Avrupa Departman\u0131 Direkt\u00f6r Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Philip Gerson, IMF’nin T\u00fcrkiye beklentilerinin siyasi belirsizli\u011fin azalmas\u0131 durumunda yukar\u0131 revize edilebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi<\/p>\n
Gerson, IMF- D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Bahar Toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Washington\u2019da d\u00fczenlenen bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00f6neltti\u011fi soruyu yan\u0131tlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
IMF\u2019nin Avrupa Departman\u0131 Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Paul Thomsen taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen toplant\u0131da \u015fu soruyu y\u00f6neltti:<\/p>\n
\u201cIMF, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu y\u0131la y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fczde 2,9\u2019dan 2,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bunun \u00fczerine Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek, Twitter \u00fczerinden \u2018IMF\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin tahminleri muhtemelen yine yanl\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131kacak\u2019 yorumunda bulundu. Ger\u00e7ekten de son birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda IMF\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri ile ger\u00e7ek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda genellikle belirgin farklar vard\u0131. Siz b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileriniz ile ger\u00e7ek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda kaydade\u011fer fark olmas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yorsunuz?\u201d<\/p>\n
Thomsen, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik ge\u00e7mi\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini \u00e7ok iyi bilmedi\u011fini belirterek soruyla ilgili geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u0131la y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesinin siyasi belirsizlik gerek\u00e7esiyle al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiren Thomsen, “T\u00fcrkiye’nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini biraz a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fimizi biliyorum. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n mali geni\u015fleme ve ihracat\u0131n kurdaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle toparlanmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu. Ancak siyasi belirsizlik hakk\u0131nda da baz\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z vard\u0131” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan IMF Avrupa Departman\u0131 Direkt\u00f6r Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Philip Gerson, AA muhabirinin yan\u0131na gelerek soruyu bire bir yan\u0131tlamak istedi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Gerson, \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin her zaman do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni bazen y\u0131l i\u00e7inde beklenmeyen olaylar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca, baz\u0131 durumlarda bekledi\u011finiz bir durumun bile \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ve daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck etkileri olabiliyor.\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Belirsizli\u011fin t\u00fcm b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eden Gerson, IMF\u2019nin bu nedenle, her y\u0131l y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u0131l boyunca g\u00fcncelledi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Gerson, s\u00f6zlerini \u015f\u00f6yle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc:<\/p>\n
\u201cBazen b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri, beklenmedi\u011fimiz olumsuz olaylar nedeniyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiliyor, bazense beklemedi\u011fimiz olumlu olaylar nedeniyle yukar\u0131 revize ediliyor. Ancak, tarihi olarak bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ya da di\u011fer \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nelik beklentilerimizde s\u00fcrekli bir sapma yok. Bazen tahminlerimiz \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek, bazen \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ama ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda sonu\u00e7 s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n olacakt\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n
Gerson, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki siyasi belirsizli\u011fin halk oylamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan azalmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik soru \u00fczerine, \u201cE\u011fer belirsizlik y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde bizim bekledi\u011fimizden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olursa, b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilmesi muhtemel. Belirsizli\u011fin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in gerekli olan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in iyi olur.\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
IMF Avrupa Departman\u0131 Direkt\u00f6r Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Philip Gerson, bununla birlikte gelecek 6 ayda beklenmeyen bir\u00e7ok \u015feyin ya\u015fanabilece\u011fini belirterek, b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin gelecek aylarda yeni geli\u015fmeler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda revize edilece\u011fini s\u00f6zlerine ekledi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bloomberght – Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonunun (IMF) Avrupa Departman\u0131 Direkt\u00f6r Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Philip Gerson: E\u011fer belirsizlik y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde bizim bekledi\u011fimizden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olursa, b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilmesi muhtemel. Belirsizli\u011fin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in gerekli olan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in iyi olur<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"views":1030,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2814"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2814"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2814\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2815,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2814\/revisions\/2815"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}