<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye’ye ili\u015fkin 2017 ve 2018 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini revize etti.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, “K\u00fcresel Ekonomik Beklentiler” (GEP) raporunun Ocak 2017 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Raporda, T\u00fcrkiye’nin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3, 2018’de y\u00fczde 3,5 ve 2019’da y\u00fczde 3,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmininde bulunuldu. Kurulu\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin zorluklarla dolu 2016’da ise y\u00fczde 2,5 geni\u015fledi\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye’ye ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri haziran ay\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan bir \u00f6nceki GEP raporunda, 2016 ve 2017 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,5 ve 2018 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,6 olarak belirlenmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
GEP raporunda, T\u00fcrkiye’ye ili\u015fkin \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmelere yer verildi:<\/p>\n
“T\u00fcrkiye’de ekonomik aktiviteler 2016’n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde, ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z darbe giri\u015fiminin ticari ko\u015fullar\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirmesiyle 2009’dan bu yana ilk kez darald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Temel senaryoda ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z darbe giri\u015fiminin ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan keskin daralman\u0131n kademeli olarak ge\u00e7mesi bekleniyor fakat gelecek beklentilere y\u00f6nelik belirsizlik y\u00fcksek ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme y\u00f6nelik riskler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. E\u011fer jeopolitik ve ulusal gerilimler, gerekli reformlar\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7irilmesini geciktirir ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6nlerse, uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri olumsuz etkilenebilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye’de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2017’de y\u00fczde 3’e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve 2018-2019 y\u0131llar\u0131nda iyile\u015fen g\u00fcvenle ortalama 3,6’ya ula\u015fmas\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Ancak, ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme y\u00f6nelik riskler, siyasi belirsizlik ve finansal piyasalardaki volatilitenin etkisiyle haziran ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla y\u00fckseldi.”<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel beklentileri de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekildi<\/strong><\/p>\n D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, raporunda 2017 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131na ili\u015fkin k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti.<\/p>\n Raporda, ge\u00e7en sene y\u00fczde 2,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u00fcresel ekonominin 2017’de biraz ivme kazanarak y\u00fczde 2,7 geni\u015fleyece\u011fi tahminine yer verildi. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l, ge\u00e7en seneye k\u0131yasla h\u0131zlanmas\u0131nda y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomilerinde i\u00e7 talebin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korumas\u0131 ile zorluklar\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131n etkili oldu\u011fu belirtilen raporda, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ise hala d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n Rapora g\u00f6re, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2018 ve 2019 y\u0131llar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2,9’a \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Kurulu\u015fun b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri, 6 ay \u00f6nce yay\u0131nlanan bir \u00f6nceki GEP raporunda 2017 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,8 ve 2018 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3 olarak belirlenmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n Ayr\u0131ca, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nelik 2017 ve 2018 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri y\u00fczde 1,9’dan y\u00fczde 1,8’e \u00e7ekildi. Benzer \u015fekilde, y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomileri i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,3 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2017 beklentisi y\u00fczde 4,2’ye ve y\u00fczde 4,7 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2018 beklentisi y\u00fczde 4,6’ya revize edildi.<\/p>\n ABD’nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri de\u011fi\u015ftirilmedi<\/strong><\/p>\n Raporda, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda gelen ABD’nin bu ve gelecek seneye ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 dikkati \u00e7ekti. Buna g\u00f6re, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ABD ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,2, 2018’de y\u00fczde 2,1 ve 2019’da y\u00fczde 1,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekliyor. Kurulu\u015f, ayr\u0131ca, ABD’nin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda daha \u00f6nceki y\u00fczde 1,9’luk tahmini yerine y\u00fczde 1,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n ABD’ye ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerine ili\u015fkin notta ise, “ABD tahminleri, yeni y\u00f6netim taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6nerilen politikalar\u0131n etkilerini, genel kapsam\u0131 ve \u015fekli hala belirsizli\u011fini korudu\u011fu i\u00e7in i\u00e7ermemektedir. Ancak sim\u00fclasyonlar, yeni y\u00f6netim taraf\u0131ndan teklif edilen geni\u015f kurumsal ve ki\u015fisel gelir vergisi indirimlerinin, hem ABD’nin hem k\u00fcresel ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini temel senaryonun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.” de\u011ferlendirmesi yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Kalk\u0131nma Beklentileri Grubu Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Ayhan K\u00f6se ise ABD’deki politika de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinin farkl\u0131 etkileri olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ederek, “ABD’de daha geni\u015flemeci mali politikalar izlenmesi orta vadede hem \u00fclkede hem d\u0131\u015far\u0131da daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme sa\u011flayabilir ancak ticaret ve di\u011fer politikalar bu kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 yok edebilir.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n Bu arada, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, Brexit ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olan Avro B\u00f6lgesi’nin ise 2017’de y\u00fczde 1,5 ve 2018-2019’da y\u00fczde 1,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekliyor. Raporda, bu oranlar\u0131n her birinin 6 ay \u00f6nceki rapora k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 0,1 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Grubu Ba\u015fkan\u0131: Cesaret bulduk<\/strong><\/p>\n D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Grubu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jim Yong Kim, rapora ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, “Y\u0131llarca hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden sonra, ufukta daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik beklentiler g\u00f6rmekten cesaret bulduk. \u015eimdi bu ivmeden yararlanarak, insana ve altyap\u0131ya y\u00f6nelik yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 art\u0131rmal\u0131y\u0131z.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bloomberght – D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye’ye ili\u015fkin 2017 ve 2018 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde revize etti<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"views":2688,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2213"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2213"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2213\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2214,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2213\/revisions\/2214"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}