<\/p>\n
DenizBank Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Hakan Ate\u015f, “Bu y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 3’e yak\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ile kapatmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde 2017’de y\u00fczde 3,5’lik bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir.” dedi.<\/p>\n
AA muhabirine k\u00fcresel piyasalar ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri ve 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 beklentilerini de\u011ferlendiren Ate\u015f, 2016’n\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015f, d\u00fcnya ticaretinin zay\u0131f ve enflasyonun da genelde hedeflerin alt\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fi bir y\u0131l oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Finansal piyasalarda ise \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen risklerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselerek yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere sermaye giri\u015finin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden Ate\u015f, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerdeki yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin genel ithalat ve emtia talebini azaltmas\u0131 ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131f seyretmesine neden oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015f, global ekonominin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3 seviyesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam ederken, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda da kriz \u00f6ncesi y\u00fczde 5 seviyelerindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yakalanmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
2016 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki gibi 2017’de de geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikalar\u0131ndan destek almaya devam edece\u011fini ama bu deste\u011fin de giderek azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen Ate\u015f, ABD ekonomisinin giderek g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve Brexit karar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede korkuldu\u011fu kadar olumsuz olmamas\u0131n\u0131n Fed’in aral\u0131kta 25 baz puan daha art\u0131\u015fa gitmesine olanak sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015f, ABD se\u00e7imlerinden beklentilerden farkl\u0131 sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n bu karar\u0131 etkilemeyece\u011fi gibi destekleyece\u011fini ifade ederek, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n
“\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yeni ba\u015fkan Donald Trump’\u0131n daha \u00f6nceki s\u00f6ylemleri do\u011frultusunda kamu altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rarak b\u00fcy\u00fcme yanl\u0131s\u0131 gev\u015fek bir mali politika izlemesi, enflasyonun beklentilerden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131 ile Fed faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131nda daha rahat duruma gelecek ve 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda da para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya devam edebilir. 2017 genel olarak geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin merkez bankalar\u0131ndan giderek daha az destek alaca\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l olmaya aday. Bu da yine geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.”<\/p>\n
\u00a0“2017’de y\u00fczde 3,5’lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir”<\/strong><\/p>\n Hakan Ate\u015f, global siyasi ve jeopolitik risklerin, Fed’in temkinli de olsa para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 ve AB’deki negatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn devam etmesinin, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda da T\u00fcrkiye’nin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam edece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde 2017’de 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na k\u0131yasla kamu taraf\u0131ndan verilen desteklerin de etkisiyle bir miktar toparlanma olmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenebilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden Ate\u015f, 2016’y\u0131 y\u00fczde 3’e yak\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ile kapatmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledikleri T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde 2017’de y\u00fczde 3,5’lik bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n Ate\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye’nin temel g\u00f6stergelerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda krizlere dayan\u0131kl\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yap\u0131n\u0131n hala devam etti\u011fine, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n hala sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funa dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n Kamunun mali disiplinine ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, net bor\u00e7 stokunun GSYH’ye oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 7,2’ye geriledi\u011fini ve finansman bulmakta herhangi bir zorluk \u00e7ekilmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Ate\u015f, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinde kalmas\u0131n\u0131n enerji harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak, risk olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n iyile\u015fmesini sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n Ate\u015f, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrine devam etmesi ve TL’deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n da durmas\u0131 durumunda enflasyonun y\u00fczde 8’in alt\u0131nda seviyelerde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n “Nefesimizi tutup suyun alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 bilmeliyiz”<\/strong><\/p>\n Hakan Ate\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerin s\u00f6z konusu oynakl\u0131ktan etkilendi\u011fini, risk primini \u015fu aralar fazlaca artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, sadece T\u00fcrkiye’de de\u011fil, d\u00fcnyada da bu durumun b\u00f6yle oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve d\u00fcnyada konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn sakinle\u015fmesi, Suriye’de s\u0131cak sava\u015flar\u0131n ortadan kalkmas\u0131 gibi durumlar\u0131n \u00f6nem arz etti\u011fini ifade eden Ate\u015f, “Biz, bu risk primlerini ta\u015f\u0131mak zorunday\u0131z. Ancak bu \u00fclke \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr. Devleti, maliye politikas\u0131, halk\u0131, bankalar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr. Hane halk\u0131 da \u00e7ok fazla bor\u00e7lu de\u011fil. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu konumumuzu koruyup d\u00fcnyan\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu oynakl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde bizim nefesimizi tutup suyun alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 bilmemiz laz\u0131m. Tasarruflu olmak ve bu arada da ekonomik \u00fcniteleri yani KOB\u0130’leri, tar\u0131m i\u015fletmelerini asla ihmal etmemek laz\u0131m. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc onlara bir \u015fey olursa ekonominin geri kalan\u0131na bu sirayet eder.”<\/p>\n “Kur, \u00fczerindeki k\u00f6p\u00fc\u011f\u00fc b\u0131rakacakt\u0131r”<\/strong><\/p>\n D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki hareketlili\u011fe ili\u015fkin de g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini payla\u015fan Ate\u015f, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu zamana kadar T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 18 civar\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n Ate\u015f, 15 Temmuz’daki darbe giri\u015fiminin ruble, rant, riyal gibi para birimlerine oranla T\u00fcrk liras\u0131ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 30’dan fazla art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi.<\/p>\n Haziran-a\u011fustos d\u00f6neminde geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in olumlu hava oldu\u011funu, bunu 15 Temmuz nedeniyle ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Ate\u015f, “Sonra \u00fczerine petrol k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131, ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na Donald Trump’\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi, Fed’in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 korkusu gibi konular \u00fcst \u00fcste gelince bizdeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 buralara kadar geldi. T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 bunu hak etmiyor. Burada bizim ekonomik gerek\u00e7elerimizden daha ziyade jeopolitik riskler kuru yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti.” dedi.<\/p>\n Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcreci \u00e7ok iyi y\u00f6netece\u011fine inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Ate\u015f, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n “Kurun \u015fimdiki \u015fi\u015fkinli\u011fini, \u00fczerindeki k\u00f6p\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yorum. Yeter ki s\u0131n\u0131rdaki sava\u015f \u00e7ok fazla alevlenmesin, konjonkt\u00fcr biraz sakinle\u015fsin ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 kendi teknik verilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 kalarak ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir \u015fekilde kendi kararlar\u0131n\u0131 versin. Ben bu anlamda 2017 y\u0131l\u0131ndan umutluyum. Faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131n\u0131n psikolojik a\u00e7\u0131dan katk\u0131lar\u0131 olacak. Bug\u00fcn TL baz\u0131nda 650 milyar lira mevduat var. Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n fonlamas\u0131 110 milyar lira. O da bizim hazine bonomuz kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla mevduat faizleri bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan \u00e7ok belirleyici bir fakt\u00f6r.”<\/p>\n Ate\u015f, mevduat a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bankalar\u0131n tamamen fonlanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bankalar\u0131n bu y\u00fczden yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kredi ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n Faiz konusunda enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n da \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu kaydeden Ate\u015f, “Bu \u00fclke enflasyonun belini k\u0131rd\u0131. Enflasyon ge\u00e7mi\u015fte y\u00fczde 40’lardayd\u0131, \u015fimdi y\u00fczde 8’lere geldik ama d\u00fcnya enflasyonunu y\u00fczde 1-2 diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek bizim bunun da belini k\u0131r\u0131p y\u00fczde 5’lere d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmemiz laz\u0131m. B\u00f6ylece fonlama maliyetleri de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya inecektir. Y\u00fczde 5 enflasyon olan yerde adam senden y\u00fczde 10 faiz istemeyecek 6 faiz isteyecek. Sen de gidip kredini 7 ile vereceksin.” \u015feklinde konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bloomberght – DenizBank Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Ate\u015f,”Kurun \u015fimdiki \u015fi\u015fkinli\u011fini, \u00fczerindeki k\u00f6p\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yorum” dedi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"views":1138,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1943"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1943"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1943\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1944,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1943\/revisions\/1944"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}