<\/p>\n
VTB Capital analisti Ak\u0131n T\u00fcz\u00fcn bug\u00fcn yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda T\u00fcrk liras\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulundu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcz\u00fcn, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 2015’teki y\u00fczde 17 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine bu y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana y\u00fczde 14 kayb\u0131 daha ekleyerek M\u0131s\u0131r’\u0131n ard\u0131ndan en \u00e7ok de\u011fer kaybeden para birimi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. T\u00fcz\u00fcn, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131nda siyasi ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin yan\u0131nda, TCMB’nin “zay\u0131f kredibilite alg\u0131s\u0131”n\u0131n bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck performansta etkili oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcz\u00fcn, Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n T\u00fcrk liras\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe m\u00fcdahale etmedi\u011fini, ancak Mart’tan bu yana s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc faiz indirimlerini durdurdu\u011funu ve zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131ndaki indirim yoluyla 2.6 milyar dolar enjekte etti\u011fini belirtti. T\u00fcz\u00fcn, Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n muhtemelen art\u0131k daha aktif olabilece\u011fini ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00f6viz ihalelerine ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini de vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n se\u00e7enekleri<\/strong><\/p>\n T\u00fcz\u00fcn’e g\u00f6re, Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n se\u00e7enekleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla;<\/p>\n 1) Zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klarda indirim (br\u00fct rezervlerden sat\u0131\u015f)<\/p>\n 2) G\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00f6viz ihalelerine yeniden ba\u015flanmas\u0131 (net rezervlerden sat\u0131\u015f)<\/p>\n 3) TL likiditesini s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak<\/p>\n 4) Faiz art\u0131rmak.<\/p>\n T\u00fcz\u00fcn, ilk se\u00e7ene\u011fin halihaz\u0131rda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck miktarda da olsa devreye konuldu\u011funu, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck miktarlarda d\u00f6viz ihalelerine yeniden ba\u015flanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n “Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131 de\u011fil”<\/strong><\/p>\n T\u00fcz\u00fcn, reel efektif d\u00f6viz kuru seviyesi ve 1 ayl\u0131k TL\/USD volatilitesinin Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n en son faiz art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ocak 2014’teki seviyelere yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu, ancak zay\u0131f ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve siyasi isteksizlik nedeniyle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr bir tarihte faiz art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n T\u00fcz\u00fcn, 3.30-3.40 band\u0131nda ancak \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin beklenildi\u011fini, 3.50’nin \u00fczerine sert hareketlerde olas\u0131 pani\u011fin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mek ad\u0131na daha cesur \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nabilece\u011fini tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n “Yurti\u00e7i yerle\u015fikler dolar satmay\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131”<\/strong><\/p>\n T\u00fcz\u00fcn, 15 Temmuz ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z darbe giri\u015fiminin ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 2.90 seviyesinden 3.10’a hareket etti\u011fi d\u00f6nemde toplam d\u00f6viz\u00a0tevdiat hesaplar\u0131nda 20 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda bir gerileme oldu\u011funa ancak T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n daha sert bir hareket yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 3.10’dan 3.40’a harekette d\u00f6viz tevdiat hesaplar\u0131n\u0131n sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti. T\u00fcz\u00fcn, bu durumun ihtiyatl\u0131 davran\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na ancak hen\u00fcz panik havas\u0131 bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n “T\u00fcrkiye’ye \u00f6zel yeni bir risk belirmezse, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 istikrar kazanacak”<\/strong><\/p>\n VTB analisti T\u00fcz\u00fcn, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131na \u00f6zel yeni bir risk unsuru belirmedik\u00e7e, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n istikrar kazanarak benzerlerine g\u00f6re k\u00f6t\u00fc performans\u0131n\u0131 durdurmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n T\u00fcz\u00fcn, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere oranla daha fazla oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n VTB’nin baz senaryosuna g\u00f6re, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 6 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde TL\/dolar ortalama 3.20-3.30 aras\u0131nda seyredecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Blommberght – VTB Capital analisti Ak\u0131n T\u00fcz\u00fcn bug\u00fcn yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda T\u00fcrk liras\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulundu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"views":967,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1783"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1783"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1783\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1785,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1783\/revisions\/1785"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}