<\/p>\n
Dolar, y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fine girdi\u011fimiz bug\u00fcnlerde di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda h\u0131zla y\u00fckselerek piyasalarda “kur sava\u015flar\u0131” ve “Dolar: ABD’nin para birimi, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n sorunu” kli\u015felerinin yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmesine neden oldu.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (Fed) eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 pas ge\u00e7mesiyle y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gidece\u011fi beklentisinin artmas\u0131, ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin ya ekonomik aktiviteye ili\u015fkin sorunlar ya da toplumsal ve politik sorunlarla u\u011fra\u015fmas\u0131 dolar\u0131n di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n son birka\u00e7 haftada ivme kazanan y\u00fckseli\u015fi, dolar endeksini 7 ay\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131rken, piyasalarda kli\u015fe haline gelmi\u015f olan “kur sava\u015flar\u0131” ve “Dolar: ABD’nin para birimi, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n sorunu” terimlerinin de tekrar g\u00fcndeme gelmesine neden oldu.<\/p>\n
1944 y\u0131l\u0131nda Bretton Woods Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 bozma karar\u0131n\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan s\u00f6ylendi\u011fi san\u0131lan ve bug\u00fcne kadar pop\u00fclerli\u011finden hi\u00e7bir \u015fey kaybetmeyen “Dolar bizim para birimimiz ama sizin sorununuz” s\u00f6z\u00fc, piyasalarda \u00f6zellikle b\u00f6yle d\u00f6nemlerde ilk akla gelen kli\u015felerden oluyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya ticaretinin neredeyse y\u00fczde 60’l\u0131k k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n dolar ile yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, dolar kurunun cari seviyesinin ticaret dengeleri ve kar marjlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde ne kadar etkili oldu\u011fu daha net bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor. Bu ba\u011flamda “kur sava\u015flar\u0131” terimi, ticari denge ve endi\u015felerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde tekrar ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00dclkelerin para birimlerinin, \u00f6zellikle dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferinin kar marjlar\u0131 ve ticaret hacimleri \u00fczerinde risk olu\u015fturmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in para politikalar\u0131 kanal\u0131yla yapt\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k ve gizli m\u00fcdahaleler i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan “kur sava\u015flar\u0131” tabiri, y\u0131llard\u0131r kur piyasas\u0131ndaki her volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda g\u00fcndeme geliyor.<\/p>\n
– Dolar, en fazla \u0130ngiliz sterlini kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Son bir ayl\u0131k fiyat geli\u015fmelerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, dolar y\u00fczde 8 ile en fazla \u0130ngiliz sterlini kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken, sterlini y\u00fczde 4 ile T\u00fcrk liras\u0131, y\u00fczde 3,5 ile \u0130sve\u00e7 kronu ve y\u00fczde 3 ile Romanya ronu izledi.<\/p>\n Di\u011fer \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise Brezilya reali ve Rus rublesinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 4 ve y\u00fczde 3 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n Malezya ringiti y\u00fczde 3, \u00c7ek korunas\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti.<\/p>\n Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda en fazla de\u011fer kaybeden para birimlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 53 ile Nijerya nairas\u0131, y\u00fczde 21 \u0130ngiliz sterlini ve y\u00fczde 16 ile Yemen riyali ilk 3 s\u0131rada yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Dolar endeksi, 2 Aral\u0131k 2015’te 100,5 ile yakla\u015f\u0131k 13 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda genel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde hareket etti ve 3 May\u0131s 2016’da 91,9 ile y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine giren dolar endeksi, bug\u00fcn 98,1’i g\u00f6rerek son 7 ay\u0131n zirvesine yerle\u015fti.<\/p>\n Dolar\/TL ise 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na 2,9230 seviyelerinden ba\u015flad\u0131 ve 2 May\u0131s’ta g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2,7890 seviyesinden itibaren bug\u00fcne kadar kademeli olarak y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Dolar\/TL bug\u00fcn 3,1132 ile t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n rekorunu k\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n – “Fiyatlar dalgalanacak ve denge seviyesini bulacak”<\/strong><\/p>\n AA muhabirine konuya ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmede bulunan DenizBank \u00d6zel Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Sermaye Piyasas\u0131 Ara\u00e7lar\u0131 Y\u00f6netmeni Orkun G\u00f6dek, ABD dolar\u0131nda son bir ay i\u00e7erisinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen de\u011fer kazanc\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda etkisini art\u0131rarak s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydetti.<\/p>\n G\u00f6dek, “Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler grubunun kendi i\u00e7erisinde olumlu hikayesi olan \u00fcyeler ile negatif ayr\u0131\u015fma i\u00e7in nedenlerin \u00fcst \u00fcste gelen \u00fcyeleri ayr\u0131 bir fiyatlamaya maruz kal\u0131yor.” dedi.<\/p>\n Petrol \u00fcreticisi konumunda olan Brezilya, Rusya ve Kolombiya gibi \u00fclkelerin para birimlerinin 26-28 Eyl\u00fcl’de ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan bu yana primlendi\u011fini belirten G\u00f6dek, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin, ithalat\u00e7\u0131 konumda bulunmas\u0131 nedeniyle g\u00f6stergelerinin olumsuz etkilenmesi beklenen T\u00fcrkiye ve G\u00fcney Afrika gibi \u00fclke varl\u0131klar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131na neden oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n G\u00f6dek, son d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta pozitif ABD dolar\u0131 hikayesinin alt\u0131n\u0131 dolduran farkl\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n pe\u015f pe\u015fe ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini, bunlar aras\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere’de Brexit s\u00fcrecinin Mart 2017\u2019den \u00f6nce ba\u015flat\u0131labilece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ile sterlin\/dolar paritesinde son 31 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, Deutsche Bank \u00f6zelinde Avrupa bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemine y\u00f6nelik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n artmas\u0131yla da avro\/dolar paritesinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girmesinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n Sterlin\/dolar paritesindeki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n, avro\/dolar ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere \u00e7apraz kurlar \u00fczerinden dolar\u0131n de\u011ferlenmesine neden oldu\u011funu belirten G\u00f6dek, \u00c7in\u2019de yuan\u0131n sabitlenmesinde kritik 6,70 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde olu\u015fmas\u0131na izin verilmesi, G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019da Maliye Bakan\u0131 Pravin Gordhan’a ili\u015fkin hukuki s\u00fcre\u00e7, ABD tahvil faizlerinde ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015f ve kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Moody’s’in T\u00fcrkiye’nin notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinin son d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in dolardaki y\u00fckseli\u015fe gerek\u00e7e olarak sunulabilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n G\u00f6dek, \u015fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri dile getirdi:<\/p>\n “D\u00fcnyadaki geli\u015fmelere paralel olarak Moody\u2019s’in T\u00fcrkiye karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 ya\u015fanan sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 fiyatlamalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan do\u011fal kar\u015f\u0131lamak gerekiyor. Bir s\u00fcre birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fimiz geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimlerinden olumsuz ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6sterilebilece\u011fini ancak bunun normal bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fiyatlar dalgalanacak ve denge seviyesini bulacak. \u015eu a\u015famada her yeni y\u00fckseli\u015f noktas\u0131 ayr\u0131 bir zirve ifade etti\u011finden teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan seviye belirtmenin \u00e7ok do\u011fru oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum.”<\/p>\n – “Fed’in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n hangi seviyede sonlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli olacak”<\/strong><\/p>\n Saxo Capital Markets Menkul De\u011ferler Uluslararas\u0131 Piyasalar K\u0131demli Uzman\u0131 Uraz \u00c7ay da ABD ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesindeki yat\u0131r\u0131m ve stoklardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle ya\u015fanan gerilemenin, dolar endeksinin temmuz ay\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn en \u00f6nemli nedeni oldu\u011funu vurgulayarak, a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda Jackson Hole toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed \u00fcyelerinin art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc konu\u015fmalar\u0131 ile eyl\u00fclde hem verilerdeki toparlanma hem de Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda karara itiraz eden \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcyenin olmas\u0131n\u0131n dolar endeksinde y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini destekledi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n \u00c7ay, dolar endeksinde temmuz ay\u0131 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131ndaki as\u0131l nedenin, Brexit belirsizli\u011finin sterlin ve avro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve enflasyon beklentilerine pozitif yans\u0131mas\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirterek, “Fed’in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in aral\u0131k ay\u0131 beklentilerini art\u0131rmas\u0131, enflasyon beklentilerinin petrol nedeniyle y\u00fckselmeye devam\u0131 ve Brexit belirsizli\u011fi nedeniyle dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman \u00f6zelli\u011fi y\u0131l sonunda dolar endeksinde tekrardan bir rekor seviyesinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini destekleyebilecek geli\u015fmeler.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n Bu y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde dolar endeksindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam etmesinin teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan da desteklendi\u011fini, 2017’nin ilk \u00e7eyrek performans\u0131n\u0131n ise Fed’in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrecinin nerede sonlanaca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan \u00c7ay, geli\u015fen \u00fclke kurlar\u0131nda dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki kay\u0131plar\u0131n telafisinin y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi\u011fini savundu.<\/p>\n \u00c7ay “2017’de tekrardan getiri aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 (ABD tahvillerindeki 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k rallinin mevcut politikalarla bitmesi zor) korkulan senaryolar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli. Ancak mali politikalar\u0131n ABD taraf\u0131nda 2017 ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren daha aktif olmas\u0131 (Clinton\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde) ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirileri ve geli\u015fen \u00fclke kurlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan uzun vadede as\u0131l hareketi belirleyen olacakt\u0131r.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bloomberght – Dolar son 1 ayda en fazla \u0130ngiliz sterlini kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken, sterlini T\u00fcrk liras\u0131, \u0130sve\u00e7 kronu ve Romanya ronu izledi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"views":707,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1497"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1497"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1497\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1498,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1497\/revisions\/1498"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1497"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1497"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1497"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}