Bu makale SPK Dergisi Aral\u0131k 2012 tarihinde 13. say\u0131s\u0131nda 18-31 sayfa aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Dr. Dipl.-Kfm. Goetz SOMMER*<\/p>\n
Dr. \u015eenol BABU\u015eCU**<\/p>\n
Dr. Adalet HAZAR***<\/p>\n
Dipl.-Kfm. \u0130lhan \u00d6ZT\u00dcRK****<\/p>\n
*Adres: Fichtestr. 45, 53177 Bonn – Bad Godesberg<\/p>\n
Tel: 0049228444042<\/p>\n
mail: goetzsommer@t-online.de<\/p>\n
** Adres: Ba\u015fkent \u00dcniversitesi TBF Bankac\u0131l\u0131k B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc<\/p>\n
Ba\u011fl\u0131ca K\u00f6y\u00fc Ankara<\/p>\n
mail: babuscu@baskent.edu.tr<\/p>\n
*** Adres: Nenehatun Caddesi 42\/2<\/p>\n
K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckesat \/ Ankara<\/p>\n
mail: adalethazar@gmail.com<\/p>\n
****Adres: Innere Kanal Str. 95, 50823 K\u00f6ln<\/p>\n
Tel: 00492219927374<\/p>\n
mail: info@ilhanoeztuerk.de<\/p>\n
\u00d6ZET<\/p>\n
Varl\u0131k de\u011ferleme konusunda \u00e7e\u015fitli yakla\u015f\u0131mlar bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n i\u00e7inde gayrimenkul de\u011ferlemede kullan\u0131lan yakla\u015f\u0131mlardan en \u00f6nemlisi gelir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130ndirgenmi\u015f nakit ak\u0131m\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 da gayrimenkul de\u011ferlemede yo\u011fun olarak kullan\u0131lan bir di\u011fer yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r. Bu makalede s\u00f6zkonusu iki yakla\u015f\u0131m farkl\u0131 bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ile de\u011ferlendirilmektedir.<\/p>\n
Varl\u0131k de\u011ferlemede yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli konu ku\u015fkusuz, s\u00f6zkonusu varl\u0131ktan elde edece\u011fi net katma de\u011ferdir. Bu ek de\u011feri, getiri beklentisi olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Bunun yan\u0131s\u0131ra piyasalardaki rakamlar\u0131 etkileyen enflasyon olgusu, varl\u0131k de\u011ferlerini fiktif olarak art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile de\u011ferleme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda genellikle iki farkl\u0131 oran\u0131n tahmin edilmesi ve varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fc boyunca da d\u0131\u015f ekonomik etkenlerin genellikle de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon tahminleri mevcut ko\u015fullar dikkate al\u0131narak yap\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Ancak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fc boyunca i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu piyasadaki farkl\u0131 geli\u015fmelerin olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, tahmin edilen ve hesaplamalarda kullan\u0131lan enflasyon oran\u0131 ile bu piyasadaki de\u011fer de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin zaman zaman farkl\u0131 olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu durumda nominal oranlar kullan\u0131lanarak yap\u0131lan varl\u0131k de\u011ferleme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda, elde edilen de\u011ferin kullan\u0131c\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi, bu kapsamda enflasyon oran\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nmadan, varl\u0131ktan beklenilen ger\u00e7ek beklenti oran\u0131n\u0131 kullanman\u0131n, daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 karar verilmesinde yarar sa\u011flayabilece\u011fi bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada \u00f6rneklerle tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Anahtar S\u00f6zc\u00fckler: De\u011ferleme, gayrimenkul de\u011ferleme, gelir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, indirgenmi\u015f nakit ak\u0131mlar\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jel S\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmas\u0131: G19, G34, G39<\/p>\n
ABSTRACT<\/p>\n
There are various approaches to valuation of real estate. Income approach is one of the most important approaches, the other one is discounted cash flow approach. In this article, these two approaches are evaluated with a different perspective.<\/p>\n
The most important issue on valuation of assets for investors is net value added to be obtained by such entity. This additional value is the expectation of return. Besides, financial markets figures affected by inflation rise as fictional. Therefore, the assumption that the external economic factors remain unchanged and two different rate estimate is used in the asset valuation studies.<\/p>\n
Inflation estimates are made by taking into consideration the existing conditions. However, probability of different developments during the life of the asset is disrupted the actual rate of inflation predicted and used in the calculations<\/p>\n
In the asset valuation studies by using the nominal rates, the value obtained may lead to misleading results in terms of users. In this context, without taking into account the inflation rate & using the expectation rate of asset may provide better results as discussed in this study with examples.<\/p>\n
Keywords: valuation, real estate valuation, income approach, discounted cash flow.<\/p>\n
Jel Classification: G19, G34, G39<\/p>\n
1. G\u0130R\u0130\u015e<\/p>\n
\u0130ktisat bilimi i\u00e7inde giderek \u00f6nemi artan finans, s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na bir alan olarak kabul edilmi\u015ftir. Finans i\u00e7inde yer alan de\u011ferleme teorisi de, piyasalar\u0131n geli\u015fmesi ve \u00fcr\u00fcn \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmesi sonucunda \u00f6neminin zaman i\u00e7inde artmas\u0131 nedeniyle ayr\u0131 bir alan haline gelmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
De\u011ferlemenin gayrimenkul a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel fonksiyonu, bir gayrimenkul\u00fcn \/ gayrimenkule ba\u011fl\u0131 hak ve faydalar\u0131n veya gayrimenkul projesinin belirli bir tarihteki olas\u0131 de\u011ferinin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z ve tarafs\u0131z olarak belirlenmesidir.<\/p>\n
Gayrimenkul de\u011ferleme konusunda \u00e7e\u015fitli yakla\u015f\u0131mlar bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131mlar i\u00e7inde en \u00f6nemlilerinden biri gelir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, bir di\u011feri ise indirgenmi\u015f nakit ak\u0131m\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r. Bu iki yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n farkl\u0131 bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ile de\u011ferlendirilmesi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n konusunu olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2. L\u0130TERAT\u00dcR TARAMASI<\/p>\n
Schulz (2002) taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, Almanya\u2019da y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte olan ve uygulanan de\u011ferleme konusundaki d\u00fczenlemenin do\u011frulu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirilmi\u015ftir. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma yap\u0131l\u0131rken, Berlin\u2019deki apartman t\u00fcr\u00fc konutlara ili\u015fkin 1980-2000 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayl\u0131k fiyatlar ve de\u011ferleme verileri kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7lar, gelir kapitalizasyonu y\u00f6ntemi \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131lar\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131larak daha iyi sonu\u00e7lar elde edildi\u011fi konusuna vurgu yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, parametrik olmayan hassasiyet tahminleri hata da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 vermektedir ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar hangi y\u00f6ntemin tecih edilebilece\u011fine karar verebilir. Sonu\u00e7ta, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada piyasa g\u00f6stergeleriyle de\u011ferleme (enflasyon olgusu da dikkate al\u0131narak) ve piyasada al\u0131m sat\u0131mda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen fiyatlar aras\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemdeki sapmalara ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar getirilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Hoesli ve bsk. (2005) taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, ger\u00e7ek gayrimenkul de\u011ferlemesi i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in Monte Carlo simulasyonu kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ile \u00f6zellikle gelecekteki nakit ak\u0131mlar\u0131, iskonto oranlar\u0131, terminal de\u011ferler[1] gibi parametrelerdeki belirsizliklerin giderilmesi ama\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada ampirik datalar kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, farkl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin olas\u0131l\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bilgi verilmi\u015f ve bir iskonto oran\u0131 hesaplamak \u00fczere model geli\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, g\u00fcven aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n uzun d\u00f6nemli faiz oran\u0131na \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Skitmore ve Irons (2007) taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, gayrimenkul de\u011ferlemesine birinci dereceden bir yakla\u015f\u0131m getirmektedir. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada Investment Property Databank (IPD) database verileri kullan\u0131larak gayrimenkullerin de\u011ferleme de\u011feri ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen i\u015flem fiyat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131klar test edilmi\u015ftir. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, de\u011ferleme ve i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. De\u011ferleyicinin de\u011fi\u015fkenli\u011fi test edilmi\u015ftir. Sonu\u00e7ta her iki de\u011ferlendirme aras\u0131nda art\u0131 ya da eksi y\u00f6nde % 5 ile %30 aras\u0131nda bir aral\u0131k b\u0131rakmak gerekti\u011fi sonucuna ula\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Clayton ve bsk. (2009) taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, gayrimenkul de\u011ferlemede yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n rol\u00fc ve esaslar\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, gayrimenkul piyasas\u0131nda homojen olmayan \u00f6zellikler al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lmaktad\u0131r ve yerel piyasalarda bilgi ak\u0131m\u0131 etkin de\u011fildir. Ayr\u0131ca, baz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar sofistike yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n piyasaya giri\u015fini ve yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlamay\u0131 \u00f6nlemelerini engellemektedir. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, hata do\u011frulama modeli kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma sonucunda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlamay\u0131 etkiledi\u011fine dair bulgular elde edilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Canavarro ve bsk. (2010) taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, gayrimenkullerin resmi rakamlar yerine i\u015flem fiyat\u0131n\u0131 belirleyerek piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n tahminlemesine y\u00f6nelik konular tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, Portekiz\u2019deki orta b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki \u015fehirlerdeki 2005 ile 2009 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda sat\u0131lan apartman daireleri veri olarak al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Veriler gayrimenkul acentalar\u0131ndan sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Veriler eski ve yeni evlerin i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131ndan olu\u015fmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada her bir m\u00fclkiyetin i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f karakteristikleri esas al\u0131narak bir model yard\u0131m\u0131yla tahminleme yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
3. GEL\u0130R DE\u011eER MODEL\u0130N\u0130N ENFLASYON ETK\u0130S\u0130 OLMADAN KULLANILMASI<\/p>\n
3.1. \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f Noktas\u0131: Gelir Yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 Form\u00fcl\u00fc<\/p>\n
Gelir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 modeline basit \u015fekliyle g\u00f6z at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, gayrimenkul de\u011ferinin, ta\u015f\u0131nmazdan ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fc boyunca elde edilmesi planlanan gelirler ile ekonomik \u00f6m\u00fcr sonunda arsaya bi\u00e7ilen de\u011ferin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferlerinin toplanmas\u0131 ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bir rakamsal de\u011fer oldu\u011fu ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n
\u015eekil 1: Gayrimenkul\u00fcn Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc De\u011ferini Hesaplama<\/p>\n
Gelir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 (GY) form\u00fcl\u00fc:<\/p>\n
(1)<\/p>\n
BG= Br\u00fct Gelir<\/p>\n
NG= Net Gelir<\/p>\n
BDAK= Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc De\u011fer Ann\u00fcite Katsay\u0131s\u0131<\/p>\n
GF= Gayrimenkul Faiz Oran\u0131[2]<\/p>\n
AD= Arsa De\u011feri<\/p>\n
n= Ekonomik \u00d6m\u00fcr<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131daki form\u00fclde kullan\u0131lan gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131 (GF- gelecekte bu yat\u0131r\u0131mdan beklenilen getiri oran\u0131) nominal faiz (iskonto) oran\u0131 (i) de\u011fildir. K\u0131saca, enflasyonun s\u0131f\u0131r oldu\u011fu bir piyasadaki sentetik olarak adland\u0131r\u0131labilecek bir faiz oran\u0131d\u0131r.[3] Ayn\u0131 zamanda bu gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131 (GF) hem net gelirlerin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferinin hesaplanmas\u0131nda, hem de ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fcn biti\u015findeki arsa de\u011ferinin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferinin hesaplamas\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan orand\u0131r.<\/p>\n
3.2. Ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Haliyle Arsa De\u011ferine Bak\u0131\u015f<\/p>\n
Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131nda ilk varsay\u0131m, arsa de\u011ferinin (AD (\u20ac)), geri kalan ekonomik \u00f6m\u00fcr (n) boyunca sabit kalmas\u0131 \u015feklindedir.<\/p>\n
Arsa de\u011feri anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131, arsa \u00fczerinde bir in\u015faat ya da herhangi bir yap\u0131n\u0131n bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermektedir (bo\u015f bir arsa). B\u00f6yle tan\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f bir arsa de\u011ferinin belirlenmesi a\u015famas\u0131nda, de\u011fer tespit g\u00fcn\u00fcnde arsa bo\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, sadece arsa de\u011ferinin de\u011fer tespit g\u00fcn\u00fcne indirgenmesi gerekmektedir. Bunun i\u00e7in zaman cetvelinde bir indirgeme (bug\u00fcne getirme) ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6rne\u011fin:<\/p>\n
Arsa de\u011feri 75.000 \u20ac<\/p>\n
Net gelir 18.000 \u20ac\/y\u0131l<\/p>\n
Gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131 % 5<\/p>\n
Ekonomik \u00f6m\u00fcr 40 y\u0131l<\/p>\n
Enflasyon oran\u0131 % 1,5<\/p>\n
Net gelir<\/p>\n
18.000 \u20ac\/y\u0131l
\n\u00b4BDAK[4] (40 y\u0131l, % 5)
\n\u00b4
\n17,159..[5]
\n= Gelir de\u011feri (geri kalan ekonomik \u00f6m\u00fcr i\u00e7erisinde)
\n=
\n308.864 \u20ac
\n+ indirgenmi\u015f arsa de\u011feri (75.000 x 0,142..[6])
\n+
\n10.653 \u20ac
\n= Gelir de\u011feri
\n=
\n319.517 \u20ac<\/p>\n
Arsa de\u011feri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan aradaki fark:<\/p>\n
75.000 \u2013 10.653 = 64.347 \u20ac<\/p>\n
olup, fark olarak bulunan de\u011fer (64.347 \u20ac), 40 y\u0131l sonra yine ayn\u0131 arsaya sahip olman\u0131n bedeli olarak tan\u0131mlanabilir.<\/p>\n
\u015eekil 2: Arsan\u0131n Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc De\u011ferini Hesaplama (Enflasyonsuz)<\/p>\n
Arsa, varl\u0131k olarak geri kalan ekonomik \u00f6m\u00fcr i\u00e7erisinde ger\u00e7ek anlamda (reel) elde kalmakta olup, bu zaman i\u00e7inde di\u011fer t\u00fcm ko\u015fullar\u0131n sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131 kabul edilmektedir.<\/p>\n
Ger\u00e7ekte ise, enflasyon etkisi oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisi dikkate al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Ancak bu a\u015famaya kadar yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan hesaplamalar, i\u00e7inde enflasyon etkisini bar\u0131nd\u0131ran nominal de\u011ferleri ifade etmemektedir.<\/p>\n
Nominal de\u011ferli gelir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 modeli (indirgenmi\u015f net nakit ak\u0131m\u0131- discounted-cash-flow) ayn\u0131 zamanda enflasyon etkisinin tahmin edilmesini gerektirmekte, bu durumda da ilave olarak, bir nominal faiz (iskonto)oran\u0131n\u0131n da belirlenmesine ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmaktad\u0131r. Bu oran\u0131n normal ko\u015fullarda gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 gerekir. Bu nominal faiz (iskonto) oran\u0131, \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir \u015fekilde enflasyon ve gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131 ile a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da yer alan form\u00fclden de g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r (Sommer, 2001: 244-245, Babu\u015fcu ve di\u011ferleri, 2008: 676):<\/p>\n
Nominal Faiz (iskonto) Oran\u0131=
\n[(1 + gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131) \u00b4 (1 + enflasyon oran\u0131)] \u2013 1<\/p>\n
K\u0131saltmalar kullan\u0131larak form\u00fcl tekrar yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u015f\u00f6yle olmaktad\u0131r:<\/p>\n
i = [ (1 + GF) \u00b4 (1 + p) ] \u2013 1 (2)<\/p>\n
i= Nominal Faiz (\u0130skonto) Oran\u0131<\/p>\n
GF= Gayrimenkul Faiz Oran\u0131<\/p>\n
p= Enflasyon Oran\u0131<\/p>\n
Enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k % 1,5 olarak tahmin edilmesi durumunda, arsa de\u011ferinin ekonomik \u00f6m\u00fcr olan 40 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde artarak nominal de\u011ferle:<\/p>\n
75.000 \u00b4 1,01540 = 136.051 \u20ac\u2018ya<\/p>\n
ula\u015fmas\u0131 s\u00f6zkonusu olacakt\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7ta ayn\u0131 de\u011fere yani 10.653 \u20ac\u2018ya ula\u015fabilmek i\u00e7in nihai de\u011fer rakam\u0131n\u0131n daha da y\u00fcksek bir nominal faiz oran\u0131 ile indirilmesi gerekir. \u00d6rnekte yer alan nominal faiz (iskonto) oran\u0131 2 nolu form\u00fcldeki veriler yerine konularak hesaplama yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda:<\/p>\n
(1 + 0,05) \u00b4 (1 + 0,015) \u2013 1 = 0,06575<\/p>\n
olarak bulunmaktad\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla nominal art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131na yukar\u0131daki hesaplama ile ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u015eekil 3: Arsan\u0131n Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc De\u011ferini Hesaplama (Enflasyonlu)<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc arsa de\u011ferinin enflasyon etkisi ile ekonomik \u00f6m\u00fcr sonuna kadar g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ile yap\u0131lan hesaplama sonucunda elde edilen rakam\u0131n, yukar\u0131da elde edilen nominal faiz oran\u0131 ile indirgenmesi sonucunda:<\/p>\n
136.051x 1,06575-40 = 10.653 \u20ac<\/p>\n
de\u011feri elde edilmektedir ki, bu de\u011fer enflasyon etkisi olmadan gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131 ile hesaplanan arsan\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011feri ile ayn\u0131 sonucu vermektedir.<\/p>\n
3.3. Enflasyonun Etkisi Ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Olarak Net Gelir<\/p>\n
Net gelir miktar\u0131n\u0131n NG (\u20ac\/y\u0131l), t\u00fcm geri kalan ekonomik \u00f6m\u00fcr boyunca ayn\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Bu gelir tutarlar\u0131n\u0131n, ekonomik \u00f6m\u00fcr boyunca belirli bir kapitalizasyon oran\u0131 (KO) dikkate al\u0131narak bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferleri hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sonu\u00e7 olarak bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011fer bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla toplam gelir de\u011feri elde edilmektedir.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131daki \u00f6rnek tekrar ele al\u0131n\u0131rsa, o zaman net gelir olan y\u0131ll\u0131k 18.000 \u20ac, gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131 % 5 oldu\u011fu bilgisi do\u011frultusunda, geri kalan ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fcn i\u00e7erisindeki gelir de\u011ferini elde etmek i\u00e7in hesaplanan bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011fer ann\u00fcite katsay\u0131s\u0131 ile \u00e7arp\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda:<\/p>\n
18.000 \u00b4 17,159..( %5 faiz oran\u0131, 40 y\u0131l \u00fczerinden ann\u00fcite katsay\u0131s\u0131) = 308.864 \u20ac<\/p>\n
sonucuna ula\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u015eekil 4: Net Gelirin Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc De\u011ferini Hesaplama (Enflasyonsuz)<\/p>\n
Ger\u00e7ekte hem br\u00fct gelirde (BG), hem de gayrimenkulun bu br\u00fct geliri sa\u011flayabilmesi i\u00e7in i\u015fletme giderlerinde (IG) enflasyonun etkisini g\u00f6zlemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olup, s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde nominal de\u011fi\u015fiklikler s\u00f6zkonusu olmaktad\u0131r. Bu durumda yukar\u0131da hesaplanan nominal faiz (iskonto) oran\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131yla, geri kalan ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fcn i\u00e7erisindeki gelir de\u011feri elde edilebilecektir.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, geri kalan ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fcn i\u00e7erisinde net gelirler sabit olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in (enflasyon etkisi ile art\u0131\u015f s\u00f6zkonusudur), gelir de\u011feri hesaplamas\u0131nda kapitalizasyon oran\u0131 art\u0131k kullan\u0131lamamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle her y\u0131la ait net gelir ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n teker teker de\u011fer tespit g\u00fcn\u00fcne indirilmesi gerekmektedir. Geri kalan ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fcn i\u00e7erisindeki gelir de\u011ferini b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak hesaplayabilmek i\u00e7in ise, indirgenmi\u015f gelir de\u011feri rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n toplanmas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k % 1,5 tahmini bir enflasyon ortam\u0131nda nominal olarak her y\u0131l net gelirlerin de ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fcn bitimine kadar % 1,5 oran\u0131nda artmas\u0131 s\u00f6zkonusudur. Yukar\u0131daki \u00f6rnekte yer alan son y\u0131la ili\u015fkin gelir tutar\u0131n\u0131n nominal de\u011feri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da yap\u0131lan hesaplamadan da g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere:<\/p>\n
18.000 x 1,01540 = 32.652 \u20ac\u2018ya<\/p>\n
ula\u015fmaktad\u0131r. 40 y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde her bir y\u0131la ili\u015fkin gelirlerin nominal de\u011ferleri bulunduktan sonra, teker teker net gelirlerin nominal faiz (iskonto) oran\u0131 ile de\u011fer tespit g\u00fcn\u00fcne getirilmesi gerekmektedir. Geri kalan ekonomik \u00f6m\u00fcrdeki gelir de\u011ferini \u00e7\u0131karmak i\u00e7in, bu \u00f6rnekde yer alan nominal hale getirilmi\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k gelir de\u011ferlerinin nominal faiz oran\u0131 ve ekonomik \u00f6m\u00fcr verileri dikkate al\u0131narak her y\u0131l i\u00e7in indirgeme yap\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda, nominal y\u0131ll\u0131k gelirlerin toplam bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011feri 308.864 \u20ac olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu hesaplamada, her y\u0131la ait net gelirlerin \u00f6nce nominal de\u011ferlerinin bulunmas\u0131, daha sonra ise nominal faiz oran\u0131 ile bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferlerinin hesaplamas\u0131 i\u015fleminin tek tek yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011finden, hesaplama ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fcn tamam\u0131n\u0131 kapsayacak \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Tablo 1: Net Gelir Enflasyon \u0130li\u015fkisi<\/p>\n
Y\u0131l
\nNominal Net Gelirler
\n(Enflasyon Etkisi \u0130le Artm\u0131\u015f Tutarlar)
\n\u0130ndirgeme Fakt\u00f6rleri
\nDe\u011fer Tespit G\u00fcn\u00fcndeki De\u011fer<\/p>\n
A
\nB
\nA x B
\nn
\nNG x (1+p)n
\n1\/(1+i)n<\/p>\n
1
\n18.270<\/p>\n
0,938..<\/p>\n
17.143<\/p>\n
2
\n18.544<\/p>\n
0,880..<\/p>\n
16.327<\/p>\n
3
\n18.822<\/p>\n
0,826..<\/p>\n
15.549<\/p>\n
4
\n19.105<\/p>\n
0,775..<\/p>\n
14.809<\/p>\n
5
\n19.391<\/p>\n
0,727..<\/p>\n
14.103<\/p>\n
6
\n19.682<\/p>\n
0,682..<\/p>\n
13.432<\/p>\n
7
\n19.977<\/p>\n
0,640..<\/p>\n
12.792<\/p>\n
8
\n20.277<\/p>\n
0,601..<\/p>\n
12.183<\/p>\n
9
\n20.581<\/p>\n
0,564..<\/p>\n
11.603<\/p>\n
10
\n20.890<\/p>\n
0,529..<\/p>\n
11.050<\/p>\n
11
\n21.203<\/p>\n
0,496..<\/p>\n
10.524<\/p>\n
12
\n21.521<\/p>\n
0,466..<\/p>\n
10.023<\/p>\n
13
\n21.844<\/p>\n
0,437..<\/p>\n
9.546<\/p>\n
14
\n22.172<\/p>\n
0,410..<\/p>\n
9.091<\/p>\n
15
\n22.504<\/p>\n
0,385..<\/p>\n
8.658<\/p>\n
16
\n22.842<\/p>\n
0,361..<\/p>\n
8.246<\/p>\n
17
\n23.184<\/p>\n
0,339..<\/p>\n
7.853<\/p>\n
18
\n23.532<\/p>\n
0,318..<\/p>\n
7.479<\/p>\n
19
\n23.885<\/p>\n
0,298..<\/p>\n
7.123<\/p>\n
20
\n24.243<\/p>\n
0,280..<\/p>\n
6.784<\/p>\n
21
\n24.607<\/p>\n
0,263..<\/p>\n
6.461<\/p>\n
22
\n24.976<\/p>\n
0,246..<\/p>\n
6.153<\/p>\n
23
\n25.351<\/p>\n
0,231..<\/p>\n
5.860<\/p>\n
24
\n25.731<\/p>\n
0,217..<\/p>\n
5.581<\/p>\n
25
\n26.117<\/p>\n
0,204..<\/p>\n
5.315<\/p>\n
26
\n26.509<\/p>\n
0,191..<\/p>\n
5.062<\/p>\n
27
\n26.906<\/p>\n
0,179..<\/p>\n
4.821<\/p>\n
28
\n27.310<\/p>\n
0,168..<\/p>\n
4.592<\/p>\n
29
\n27.720<\/p>\n
0,158..<\/p>\n
4.373<\/p>\n
30
\n28.135<\/p>\n
0,148..<\/p>\n
4.165<\/p>\n
31
\n28.557<\/p>\n
0,139..<\/p>\n
3.966<\/p>\n
32
\n28.986<\/p>\n
0,130..<\/p>\n
3.778<\/p>\n
33
\n29.421<\/p>\n
0,122..<\/p>\n
3.598<\/p>\n
34
\n29.862<\/p>\n
0,115..<\/p>\n
3.426<\/p>\n
35
\n30.310<\/p>\n
0,108..<\/p>\n
3.263<\/p>\n
36
\n30.765<\/p>\n
0,101..<\/p>\n
3.108<\/p>\n
37
\n31.226<\/p>\n
0,095..<\/p>\n
2.960<\/p>\n
38
\n31.694<\/p>\n
0,089..<\/p>\n
2.819<\/p>\n
39
\n32.170<\/p>\n
0,083..<\/p>\n
2.685<\/p>\n
40
\n32.652<\/p>\n
0,078..<\/p>\n
2.557<\/p>\n
Toplam<\/p>\n
308.864<\/p>\n
Bu hesaplamada da yukar\u0131 oldu\u011fu gibi nominal faiz oran\u0131 olarak % 6,575\u2019in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n
\u015eekil 5: Net Gelirin Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc De\u011ferini Hesaplama (Enflasyonlu)<\/p>\n
4. NOM\u0130NAL FA\u0130Z (\u0130SKONTO) ORANININ, GAYRIMENKUL FA\u0130Z ORANININ VE ENFLASYON ORANININ BA\u011eLANTISI<\/p>\n
Gelir de\u011fer modelinde, enflasyonun etkisi olmadan ya da enflasyon geli\u015fim seyri i\u00e7erisinde gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131 ve farkl\u0131 bir nominal faiz (iskonto) oran\u0131 (DCF-Modell) al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, de\u011fer tespit g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7inde enflasyonun da etkisini bulunduran de\u011fer rakam\u0131na ula\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
4.1. \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f Noktas\u0131<\/p>\n
\u0130ndirgenmi\u015f net nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131\/Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)-Modeli\u2019nde, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck tahmin edilen gelir art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 indirgemek i\u00e7in, \u00f6ncelikle bir iskonto faiz oran\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmaktad\u0131r. Gelir de\u011fer modelinde ise gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131, de\u011fer hesaplamas\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki modelde de \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan husus, enflasyon etkisinin g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurulmas\u0131d\u0131r. DCF-Modeli\u2019nde, enflasyonu i\u00e7inde bar\u0131nd\u0131ran (nominal) de\u011fer art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rken, gelir de\u011fer modelinde ise enflasyon oran\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131r olarak al\u0131nmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ancak, gayrimenkul de\u011ferlendirmede iki model de ayn\u0131 hedefe ula\u015fabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc modelin birinde (\u0130ndirgenmi\u015f net nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131\/Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)-Modeli) enflasyon etkisi hesaplaman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda dikkate al\u0131nmakta, di\u011ferinde ise (gelir de\u011fer modeli) enflasyon etkisi nihai de\u011fer bulunduktan sonra hesaplamaya dahil edilmektedir. \u0130skonto (nominal faiz) oran\u0131 bu durumda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi hesaplan\u0131r:[7]<\/p>\n
i = [(1+GF) \u00b4 (1+p)] \u2013 1 (3)<\/p>\n
4.2. DCF-Modelindeki Kapitalizasyon Oran\u0131<\/p>\n
\u0130ndirgenmi\u015f net nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 modelinde (DCF-Model), belli bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde ayn\u0131 kalan ve ayr\u0131ca ili\u015fkili olan faiz oran\u0131ndan ve enflasyon oran\u0131ndan yola \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u0130ndirgenmi\u015f net nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fer tespiti, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, gelir art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131ndan (minimum enflasyon oran\u0131 kadar) ve indirgenmi\u015f artan \u00f6deme tutarlar\u0131ndan olu\u015fur:<\/p>\n
J<\/p>\n
\u0130lk nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan -R itibaren artan \u00f6demeler<\/p>\n
indirgenmi\u015f artan \u00f6demeler-R<\/p>\n
1<\/p>\n
2<\/p>\n
\u00af<\/p>\n
\u00af<\/p>\n
\u00af<\/p>\n
N<\/p>\n
son a\u015famadan elde edilen de\u011fer:<\/p>\n
(4)[8]<\/p>\n
olup, ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fcn tamam\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda:<\/p>\n
(5)<\/p>\n
e\u015fitli\u011fi elde edilir. Ek 1 A\u2019ya g\u00f6re (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da) form\u00fcl\u00fcn son \u015fekli:<\/p>\n
(6)<\/p>\n
olur.<\/p>\n
4.3. \u0130ki Modeldeki Ayn\u0131 Kapitalizasyon Oran\u0131<\/p>\n
Ek 1 B\u2019ye g\u00f6re enflasyon etkisinin de\u011fer hesaplamas\u0131nda ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 a\u015famas\u0131nda dikkate al\u0131nan gelir de\u011fer modelinde, de\u011fer hesaplamas\u0131 i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan v katsay\u0131s\u0131 = KOGY,<\/p>\n
(7)<\/p>\n
kullan\u0131larak de\u011fer hesaplamas\u0131 yap\u0131labilir. Bu durumda da iki ayr\u0131 de\u011fer hesaplama modelindeki ayn\u0131 de\u011fer rakam\u0131 elde edilmekte:<\/p>\n
(8)<\/p>\n
b\u00f6ylece ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7da bahsedildi\u011fi \u015fekliyle:<\/p>\n
i = [(1 + GF) \u00b4 (1 + p)] \u2013 1 (9)<\/p>\n
e\u015fitli\u011fi sonucuna ula\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Ek 1 C\u2019de bu bak\u0131\u015f sonsuz d\u00f6neme geni\u015fletilmektedir.<\/p>\n
5. GEL\u0130R DE\u011eER MODEL\u0130NDE ENFLASYON ETK\u0130S\u0130N\u0130N D\u0130KKATE ALINMAMASININ \u00d6NEM\u0130<\/p>\n
5.1. Nominal De\u011fi\u015fmelerin Etkisinin Dikkate Al\u0131nmamas\u0131<\/p>\n
Bu yakla\u015f\u0131mda, arsa de\u011feri reel yani ger\u00e7ek olarak kalmakta, ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde net gelir de reel haliyle dikkate al\u0131nmaktad\u0131r. Gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131, elde edilen reel sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n geriye do\u011fru hesaplanmas\u0131ndan elde edildi\u011fi i\u00e7in, bulunan gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131nda enflasyon etkisi yer almamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ger\u00e7ek durumun g\u00f6r\u00fclebilmesi i\u00e7in, gelir de\u011fer modelinde mutlaka gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Herhangi bir \u015fekilde nominal faiz (iskonto) oran\u0131n\u0131n hesaplamalarda kullan\u0131lmas\u0131, de\u011ferlemede hatal\u0131 sonu\u00e7lara ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecektir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer taraftan, enflasyonist ortamlarda piyasa gelecek beklentilerini fiyatlamakta olup, reel anlamda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon ortam\u0131nda, beklenen reel de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek seviyede bir reel de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bulunmas\u0131 s\u00f6zkonusu olmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00d6rnek: \u0130ki farkl\u0131 piyasada ayn\u0131 \u00f6zelliklere sahip gayrimenkul i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 enflasyon beklentileri oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki durum ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r:<\/p>\n
GF<\/p>\n
Piyasa A- Enf. %1<\/p>\n
Piyasa B-Enf. %2<\/p>\n
0,05<\/p>\n
0,01<\/p>\n
0,02<\/p>\n
Nominal Oran<\/p>\n
0,06<\/p>\n
0,07<\/p>\n
1 y\u0131l sonraki gelir \u20ac<\/p>\n
1.000<\/p>\n
1.000<\/p>\n
1,06<\/p>\n
1,07<\/p>\n
\u0130skonto fakt\u00f6r\u00fc<\/p>\n
0,94[9]<\/p>\n
0,93[10]<\/p>\n
Gelirin Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc De\u011feri[11]<\/p>\n
943,40<\/p>\n
934,58<\/p>\n
E\u011fer 1 y\u0131l sonra Piyasa B\u2019de beklenen enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek anlamda %2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda, Piyasa B\u2019de bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce hesaplanan gelirin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011feri oldu\u011fundan daha az bulunmu\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 durum Piyasa A i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli olup, Piyasa A\u2019da beklenen enflasyonun % 1\u2019in \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi durumunda, bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce bu piyasadaki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n gelirinin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011fer hesaplamas\u0131nda olumsuz y\u00f6nde fiili olarak sapma ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile, gayrimenkulun nominal de\u011fer hesaplamas\u0131nda enflasyonun etkisinin olmas\u0131 durumunda, yanl\u0131\u015f sonu\u00e7lar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecektir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada olu\u015fturulan model Almanya\u2019da halen kullan\u0131lmakta olup, hen\u00fcz Uluslararas\u0131 De\u011ferleme Standartlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde yer almamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
5.2. Enflasyon Etkisinin Dikkate Al\u0131nmamas\u0131n\u0131n Avantajlar\u0131<\/p>\n
Enflasyon etkisinin dikkate al\u0131nmamas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli \u00fc\u00e7 avantaj sa\u011flar:<\/p>\n
1. Bir enflasyon oran\u0131 tahmin edilmesi gerekmez. \u0130leriye y\u00f6nelik verileri elde etmek \u00fczere ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan temel veriler i\u00e7in zaten tahmin yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekmektedir. Bu durumda enflasyon tahminine olan ihtiya\u00e7 ortadan kalkar.<\/p>\n
2. \u0130skonto (nominal faiz) oran\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i seviyede bulmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmamaktad\u0131r. Nominal faiz oran\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan form\u00fcl belirli varsay\u0131mlara ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6rnek: enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n sabit olmas\u0131 gibi.<\/p>\n
3. Kapitalizasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131, gelir de\u011fer hesaplamas\u0131n\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
6. GAYR\u0130MENKUL FA\u0130Z ORANI<\/p>\n
6.1. Gayrimenkul Faiz Oran\u0131n\u0131n Teorik Olarak Belirlenmesi<\/p>\n
Gayrimenkul de\u011ferlemesinde kullan\u0131lacak faiz oran\u0131, para ve sermaye piyasalar\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan faiz oranlar\u0131ndan gayrimenkul piyasas\u0131n\u0131n kendine \u00f6zg\u00fc nitelikleri nedeniyle farkl\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu nedenle, gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131 olarak do\u011frudan piyasa faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 do\u011fru de\u011fildir. (Nominal faiz (iskonto) oran\u0131, baz\u0131 durumlarda, herhangi bir ta\u015f\u0131nmaz i\u00e7in saptanan makul de\u011ferin kontrol\u00fc amac\u0131yla kulan\u0131labilir.)<\/p>\n
Burada dikkat edilmesi gereken husus, gelir de\u011fer y\u00f6nteminde ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan; gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamak i\u00e7in, bilinen fiyatlar\u0131 ve net gelirleri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Gayrimenkul faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n piyasadaki arz ve talep \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u201duygun[12]\u201c rakamlardan elde edilmesi gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n
Bilgili ve istekli taraflar aras\u0131nda, herhangi bir ili\u015fkiden etkilenmeyecek \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n el de\u011fi\u015ftirebilece\u011fi fiyat\u0131 veya y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin yerine getirilmesine esas te\u015fkil edecek olan tutar \u00fczerinden, gelir de\u011feri ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan rakam olup:<\/p>\n
Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f Fiyat (F) = Gelir Yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 (GY)<\/p>\n
Gelir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 form\u00fcl\u00fc:<\/p>\n
olup, (10)<\/p>\n
yukar\u0131daki form\u00fclden elde edilen:<\/p>\n
\u2019dir. (11)<\/p>\n
Gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131 hari\u00e7, bu form\u00fclde t\u00fcm veriler kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f de\u011ferlerden elde edilebilmekte, sadece gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamak gerekmektedir. Bu denklemin hesaplanabilmesi i\u00e7in, gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n hesaplanmas\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
6.2. Gayrimenkul Faiz Oran\u0131n\u0131n Pratikde Kullan\u0131lmas\u0131<\/p>\n
Gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 belirlerken izlenilebilecek bir di\u011fer y\u00f6ntemde ise, gelir de\u011fer formul\u00fcnde sonsuz ann\u00fcite yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ile:<\/p>\n
(12)<\/p>\n
de\u011fer belirlemesi yap\u0131lmakta olup, indirgeme oran\u0131 i\u00e7in (GF\u2019e g\u00f6re) denklem d\u00fczenlenirse:<\/p>\n
(13)<\/p>\n
form\u00fcl\u00fc elde edilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6rnek: Net gelirler 56.250 \u20ac\/y\u0131l ve gayrimenkul de\u011feri (F) 1.200.000 \u20ac\u2019dur. Arsa de\u011feri 200.000 \u20ac, ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fc 80 y\u0131ld\u0131r. Bu veriler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131 nedir?<\/p>\n
Elde edilen kapitalizasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n gayrimenkul de\u011fer tespiti y\u00f6ntemi olan indirgenmi\u015f nakit ak\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u00f6nteminde (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da form\u00fcl\u00fc yer alan) faiz oran\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda, gayrimenkulun tam de\u011fer rakam\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131lamamaktad\u0131r. Bu durumda gayrimenkulun faiz oran\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda yer alan ad\u0131mlar\u0131n deneme yan\u0131lma yolu ile izlenerek nihai reel de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n
(14)<\/p>\n
Tablo 2: Gayrimenkulun Kapitalizasyon Oran\u0131n\u0131 Hesaplama<\/p>\n
Ad\u0131m<\/p>\n
Gayrimenkul Faiz Oran\u0131<\/p>\n
Gelirlerin \u0130NA[13] Y\u00f6ntemine G\u00f6re Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc De\u011fer Toplam\u0131<\/p>\n
Arsan\u0131n Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc De\u011feri<\/p>\n
Toplam Gelir De\u011feri<\/p>\n
Mevcut De\u011ferden Rakamsal Fark<\/p>\n
Oransal Fark<\/p>\n
(1)<\/p>\n
NG \u00b4 KO[14]<\/p>\n
(2)<\/p>\n
(1) + (2)<\/p>\n
(1) + (2) \u2013 F<\/p>\n
(1) + (2) \u2013 F<\/p>\n
F<\/p>\n
Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7<\/p>\n
4,69 %<\/p>\n
1.168.703 \u20ac<\/p>\n
5.112 \u20ac<\/p>\n
1.173.815 \u20ac<\/p>\n
– 26.185 \u20ac<\/p>\n
– 2,18 %<\/p>\n
1. Ad\u0131m<\/p>\n
4,59 %<\/p>\n
1.191.676 \u20ac<\/p>\n
5.519 \u20ac<\/p>\n
1.197.195 \u20ac<\/p>\n
– 2.805 \u20ac<\/p>\n
– 0,23 %<\/p>\n
2. Ad\u0131m<\/p>\n
4,57 %<\/p>\n
1.196.368 \u20ac<\/p>\n
5.603 \u20ac<\/p>\n
1.201.971 \u20ac<\/p>\n
1.971 \u20ac<\/p>\n
0,16 %<\/p>\n
3. Ad\u0131m<\/p>\n
4,58 %<\/p>\n
1.194.018 \u20ac<\/p>\n
5.561 \u20ac<\/p>\n
1.199.579 \u20ac<\/p>\n
– 421 \u20ac<\/p>\n
– 0,04 %<\/p>\n
Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 a\u015famas\u0131nda ilk belirlenen % 4,69 kapitilizasyon oran\u0131na g\u00f6re hesaplanan gelir de\u011ferinin oransal fark\u0131 % 2,18\u2019dir. Bu hesaplamada elde edilen de\u011fer rakam\u0131, mevcut al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m fiyat\u0131 olan 1.200.000 \u20ac\u2019nun alt\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Ula\u015f\u0131lmak istenilen rakam\u0131n 1.200.000 \u20ac olmas\u0131 nedeni ile kapitilizasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak yukar\u0131da \u00f6rnekte ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, gayrimenkulun ger\u00e7ek piyasa de\u011ferini veren oran, indirgenmi\u015f nakit ak\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u00f6ntemiyle bulunan (deneme yan\u0131lma yolu ile hesaplanan) %4,58\u2019dir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7e\u015fitli gayrimenkuller i\u00e7in al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m durumunda yukar\u0131daki form\u00fcle g\u00f6re gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
6.3. Gayrimenkul Faiz Oran\u0131n\u0131n Enflasyon Oran\u0131ndan Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/p>\n
Enflasyonlu ortamlardan yola \u00e7\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve periyodik fiyat de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinde mal ve hizmetler i\u00e7in nominal y\u00fczde p tespit edilir. Periyodun sonunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki form\u00fcl olu\u015fur:<\/p>\n
(15)<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131daki form\u00fclde (1+p)\u2019nin k\u0131salt\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda,<\/p>\n
(16)<\/p>\n
form\u00fcl\u00fcne ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131r ki, bu form\u00fclle de periyodun ba\u015f\u0131ndaki ayn\u0131 gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131 elde edilir.<\/p>\n
7. SONU\u00c7<\/p>\n
De\u011ferlemenin amac\u0131 ne olursa olsun sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 yap\u0131lmas\u0131, taraflar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan ilgilendirmektedir. Ancak \u00fclke ekonomilerinde bir \u00e7ok konuyu oldu\u011fu gibi de\u011ferlemeyi de etkileyen enflasyon olgusunu unutmamak gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n
Bilindi\u011fi \u00fczere, enflasyon gelecekteki beklentilerin fiyatlanmas\u0131 olarak da adland\u0131r\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Bu nedenle enflasyon varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131nda fiktif olarak bir art\u0131\u015f yaratmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
De\u011ferleme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda esas al\u0131nan rakamlar\u0131n, enflasyon etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmadan hesaplaman\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131, ger\u00e7ek anlamdaki de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n fiktif fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7inde \u00f6nemini kaybetmesine neden olabilecektir.<\/p>\n
Bir di\u011fer nokta ise, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n belli tutarda yapaca\u011f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m alternatiflerini de\u011ferlendirirken, farkl\u0131 enflasyon ortamlar\u0131ndaki varl\u0131klar\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir olmas\u0131n\u0131 da ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu kapsamda:<\/p>\n
– Yap\u0131lan de\u011ferleme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda enflasyon etkisinin ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131larak, reel de\u011ferlerle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i rakamlar\u0131 elde etmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n
– Bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli husus ise, gelecek fiyatlamas\u0131 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan enflasyonun varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131nda (\u00f6zellikle ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fc olanlarda) ger\u00e7ekte olmas\u0131 gerekenin alt\u0131nda\/\u00fczerinde reel de\u011fer\/gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fidir.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131daki \u00f6rnekte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere gelir de\u011fer yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ile belirlenen kapitilizasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n, veri olarak indirgenmi\u015f nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6ntemi ile ekonomik \u00f6mr\u00fc olan bir varl\u0131k de\u011ferlemesinde indirgeme\/iskonto olarak kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda g\u00fcncel de\u011fere tam olarak ula\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olamamaktad\u0131r. Bu durumda enterpolasyon yap\u0131larak g\u00fcncel de\u011feri sa\u011flayan iskonto oran\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda elde edilen oran\u0131n, gelir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan kapitilizasyon oran\u0131ndan bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde farkl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n
KAYNAK\u00c7A<\/p>\n
A\u00e7lar, Ahmet , \u00c7a\u011fda\u015f, Volkan, Ta\u015f\u0131nmaz (Gayrimenkul) De\u011ferlemesi (2002), TMMOB, Harita ve Kadastro M\u00fchendisleri Odas\u0131, \u0130stanbul.<\/p>\n
Babu\u015fcu, \u015eenol, Hazar, Adalet, Bi\u00e7er, \u0130lhan, Erkara, Ayhan (2008), SPK Gayrimenkul De\u011ferleme Uzmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Lisanslama S\u0131navlar\u0131na Haz\u0131rl\u0131k, T\u00fcm Konular, 2. Bask\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bernhard Metzger, Jasmin Jallad, Werterrmittlung von Immobilien und Grundst\u00fcck, Broschiert – 22. Juni 2010.<\/p>\n
Canavarro,Cristina, Caridad, Jose Maria, Ceular, Nuria(2010), \u201cHedonic Methodologies in the Real Estate Valuation\u201d, http:\/\/repositorio.ipcb.pt\/bitstream \/10400.11\/412\/1\/paper85_%20MME.pdf.<\/p>\n
Chambers, Nurg\u00fcl (2005), Firma De\u011ferlemesi, Avc\u0131ol Bas\u0131m Yay\u0131n, \u0130stanbul.<\/p>\n
Clayton, J., Ling,D.C., Naranjo,A.(2009),\u201d Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment\u201d, Real Estate Finan Econ (2009) 38:5\u201337.<\/p>\n
Copeland, Tom, Koller, Tim and Murrin, Jack (1994), Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, McKinsey & Company, Inc., New York.<\/p>\n
Damodaran, Aswath (1996) Investment Valuation, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.<\/p>\n
Gayrimenkul Finansman\u0131 ve De\u011ferlemesi (2002), \u0130stanbul Menkul K\u0131ymetler Borsas\u0131 Yay\u0131nlar\u0131, \u0130stanbul, Aral\u0131k, \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Bask\u0131: \u0130stanbul 2007.<\/p>\n
Hoesli, M, Jani, E, Bender, A (2005) \u201cMonte Carlo Simulations for Real Estate Valuation\u201d, Research Paper N\u00b0 148 FAME – International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering ,University of Geneva, http:\/\/www.swissfinanceinstitute. ch\/rp148.pdf.<\/p>\n
Schulz, R.,(2002) \u201cReal Estate Valuation According to Standardized Methods: An Empirical Analysis\u201d, Case – Center for Applied Statistics and Economics Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin, SFB 373, 55.<\/p>\n
Skitmore R M , Irons J J (2007), \u201cValuation Accuracy And Variation: A Meta Analysis\u201d, Conference Paper, PPRES, http:\/\/eprints.qut.edu.au\/9485\/1\/9485_1.pdf.<\/p>\n
Sommer, Goertz (2010), Lehrbuch zur Immobilien bewertung Under Ber\u00fccksichtigung der ImmoWertV. Werner Verlag.<\/p>\n
Sommer, Goertz (2001), \u201cZur Ableitung des Kalkulationszinssatzes im Discounted Cash-Flow-Modell\u201c, Der Sachverst\u00e4ndige (DS).<\/p>\n
Stefan Kofner (2010), Investitionsrechnung f\u00fcr Immobilien. Taschenbuch.<\/p>\n
Ek 1 A:<\/p>\n
\u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f eder:<\/p>\n
(a)<\/p>\n
ve b\u00f6l\u00fc olur:<\/p>\n
(b)<\/p>\n
(a) eksi (b):<\/p>\n
ifadesine son \u015fekli verildikden sonra:<\/p>\n
sonucuna ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ek 1 B:<\/p>\n
\u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131<\/p>\n
olup, enflasyon etkisinin ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 ile<\/p>\n
eder:<\/p>\n
ifade (-) ile geni\u015fletildi\u011finde<\/p>\n
sonu\u00e7da bilinen gelir de\u011fer modelindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki sonu\u00e7 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r:<\/p>\n
KODCF = KOGY<\/p>\n
Ek 1 C :<\/p>\n
\u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f<\/p>\n
ve ko\u015ful\/\u015fart olarak, qi > qp (nominal getirinin enflasyon oran\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131)<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 (sonsuz ann\u00fcite durumunda) n\u00e0\u00a5:<\/p>\n
\u201dsonsuz d\u00f6nemde\u201c getiri, gelir de\u011fer modeli i\u00e7inde<\/p>\n
sonucuna ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00f6nc\u00fcl ko\u015ful sonu\u00e7 (sonsuz ann\u00fcite durumunda) n\u00e0\u00a5.<\/p>\n
[1]u\u00e7 de\u011fer, vade sonu de\u011fer vb. ifadelerle de tan\u0131mlanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n
[2] b\u00f6l\u00fcm 6\u2019ya bak\u0131n\u0131z<\/p>\n
[3] b\u00f6l\u00fcm 6 \u2019ya bak\u0131n\u0131z<\/p>\n
[4] BDAK = E\u015fit tutar, e\u015fit vade aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve belli bir vadeye sahip gelecekteki nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferlerinin hesaplamas\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n
[5] ((1+0,05)40-1)\/((1+0,05)40\u00b40,05)<\/p>\n
[6] 1\/(1+0,05)40<\/p>\n
[7] k\u0131saltmalar:<\/p>\n
iskonto faiz oran\u0131 i fakt\u00f6r qi =1+i<\/p>\n
enflasyon oran\u0131 p factor qp = 1+p<\/p>\n
gayrimenkul faiz oran\u0131 GF fakt\u00f6r qGF = 1+GF<\/p>\n
periyodik endex j = 1, … , n de\u011fer- DCF-Modelinde KODCF<\/p>\n
ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 getiri (art\u0131\u015f) R de\u011fer- GY-Modelinde KOGY<\/p>\n
[8] \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada yer alan 4,5,6,7,8,9 no\u2019lu form\u00fcller bu makalenin yazarlar\u0131ndan Dr. Goetz Sommer\u2019in Der Sachverstandige Dergisi Eyl\u00fcl 2001 bask\u0131s\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanan \u201cZur Ableitung des Kalkulationszinssatzes im Discounted Cash Flow-Modell\u201c isimli makalesinden al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
[9] 1\/ 1,06<\/p>\n
[10] 1\/1,07<\/p>\n
[11] 1 y\u0131l sonraki gelirin iskonto fakt\u00f6r\u00fc ile bug\u00fcne indirgenmi\u015f tutarlar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
[12]Uygun ifadesi ile kastedilen, SPK\u2019n\u0131n Uluslararas\u0131 De\u011ferleme Standard\u0131na \u0130li\u015fkin Tebli\u011fde a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 yer alan Makul De\u011fer ifadesi\u2019dir.<\/p>\n
[13] \u0130NA: \u0130ndirgenmi\u015f nakit ak\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u00f6ntemi.<\/p>\n
[14]((1+GF)n-1)\/(1+GF)n\u00b4GF<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bu makale SPK Dergisi Aral\u0131k 2012 tarihinde 13. say\u0131s\u0131nda 18-31 sayfa aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Dr. Dipl.-Kfm. Goetz SOMMER* Dr. \u015eenol BABU\u015eCU** Dr. Adalet HAZAR*** Dipl.-Kfm. \u0130lhan \u00d6ZT\u00dcRK**** *Adres: Fichtestr. 45, 53177 Bonn – Bad Godesberg Tel: 0049228444042 mail: goetzsommer@t-online.de ** Adres: Ba\u015fkent \u00dcniversitesi TBF Bankac\u0131l\u0131k B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc Ba\u011fl\u0131ca K\u00f6y\u00fc Ankara mail: babuscu@baskent.edu.tr *** Adres: Nenehatun Caddesi 42\/2 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":26,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/71"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/71\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":318,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/71\/revisions\/318"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/26"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adalethazar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}